Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 25, 2017
Cowboys vs Cardinals
Cowboys
-2½ -115 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Take Dallas (#489)

Wiseguys enjoyed a HUGE weekend in the NFL, while recreational bettors got burned repeatedly, with one ‘public’ side after the next going down in flames on Sunday.  Expect that to change on Monday Night, with the sharp $$ pushing the line down to Dallas -2.5 at many books as I write this.

The wiseguys are betting Arizona for two reasons tonight.  First, they like the spot for the Cardinals.  Arizona is returning home for the first time after playing on the road in Weeks 3 & 4 of the preseason, then again in the first two weeks of the regular season.  Secondly, the sharps are clearly concerned with the injuries to the Cowboys secondary with both Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie ruled out this evening.

I can understand the wiseguy rationale here, but I don’t agree with it one iota.  Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015.  Last year, it declined to 87.2.  Through two games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 65.5, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics.

Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue this evening, an aging QB at the tail end of his career.  Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him in Indy last week, getting very little from the running game.  The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies expected to miss and Mike Iupati questionable to suit up.  Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown expected to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury.  For what it’s worth, it sure looks as if Larry Fitzgerald has finally lost a step.  Even with the Cowboys dinged up secondary, Arizona’s offense is not primed to march up and down the field.

The Cowboys were road darlings last year, opening up the season with a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, including SU wins in Pittsburgh and Green Bay.   This team can handle the intensity of playing in Arizona on a Monday Night.  They’re coming off the first true blowout loss of the Dak Prescott/Zeke Elliott era, and based on everything I’ve read, this is a hungry, angry team with something to prove to a national TV audience tonight.  Prescott: “I think we just didn’t play our game and we didn’t execute the way that we should or we normally do….I know I’ll get better from it, I know this team will get better from it and it’ll be a learning experience.”  Expect the Cowboys to show that they’ve learned their lesson with a road win tonight.  Take the Cowboys.

SERVICE BIO

Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..