Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Diamondbacks vs Brewers
Diamondbacks
+107 at 5Dimes
Won
$107
Play Type: Premium

Take Arizona (#907)

My clients and I lost playing the Over between Arizona and Milwaukee last night, as the Brewers bats were completely stymied in a 4-0 shutout loss.  Now that the once hot Brewers bats have finally cooled off, there’s no comparison between these two teams right now – expect to get it back with a ‘plus price’ return on the D-backs here.

Arizona is surging, winners of four straight and nine of their last ten.  Starter Zack Godley has thrown three consecutive gems, allowing only 13 hits and five runs while pitching into the seventh inning each time, and he’s been able to keep the ball on the ground, avoiding the gopher ball.  Behind him, the D-backs bullpen got a much needed break last night thanks to Robbie Ray’s seven shutout innings.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, has lost four straight – their longest losing streak of the season, including the first three on this homestand, scoring only seven runs in the process.  Manager Craig Counsell is trying to keep everybody calm, but he knows what’s up: “It's a little bit of adversity. That's all right. It's part of the season.”  They just got Ryan Braun back in the lineup, but he re-strained the same hamstring last night, expected to be sidelined again; a big loss for this suddenly struggling lineup.  Don’t expect ‘first start off the DL’ Junior Guerra to be a difference maker for the Brewers in this one.  Take the Diamondbacks.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Cubs vs Dodgers
Dodgers
-130 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Take the LA Dodgers (#912)

Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year.  But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries.  After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has notched only two quality starts in his last seven tries.  He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons – his velocity is down, his ground ball rate is down and his home run rate has nearly QUADRUPLED since his Cy Young campaign two years ago. 

How good is Dodgers starter Alex Wood?  Well, if you look at the advanced metric stats this season, he’s been better than Clayton Kershaw!  Wood’s 1.88 ERA is backed up by a 2.39 xFIP, nothing fraudulent there.  His strikeout rate is 10.9 K’s per nine innings, elite numbers, ranked in the Top 10 pitchers in baseball.  And his 67.6% of ground balls ranks #1 in MLB – it’s not going to be easy for those Cubs power bats to get the ball in the air tonight.  Expect a Chicago squad that has been feasting on the weak at home over the past week to struggle on the road against class tonight.  Take the Dodgers.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 26, 2017
Braves vs Giants
Giants
-111 at BMaker
Lost
$111.0
Play Type: Free

1* Take San Francisco (#914)

To say the betting markets HATE Matt Cain is something of an understatement.   How much do they dislike Cain?  Well, this is only the second time he’s been favored all year (higher than -110).  The first came at home against the lowly Padres with Jhoulys Chacin on the hill.  And here, against a Braves team that’s five games under .500 and just lost their best hitter to the DL, Cain still is only in the -115 range, even AFTER a market move in his favor in early betting action on Friday.

In his road starts, the markets have been 100% correct in fading the aging Giants hurler – he’s thrown well only once in five tries, including a particularly ugly outing in St Louis last weekend.  But pitching in his comfort zone on a typical cool May evening in San Francisco, Cain offers legitimate ‘bet-on’ potential, especially in this attractive underdog price range.

The numbers don’t lie.  Matt Cain has a 8.28 ERA on the highway this year, but he’s allowed only three runs in his four starts here at AT&T Park; a ‘bet-on’ hurler in a ballpark where fly balls tend to die on the warning track.  That home ERA includes 6.1 innings of one run ball against the potent Dodgers lineup in his last outing.

And make no mistake about it – even after a rough week in Chicago, the Giants are on a legitimate uptick right now.  They had won eight of ten prior to running into the Cubs.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has cooled off too since Freddy Freeman went on the DL, closing out their homestand with a pair of ugly losses to the Pirates.

Atlanta’s Jamie Garcia is a lefty, and San Francisco has struggled in the aggregate against opposing southpaws this season.  But Garcia certainly isn’t mowing opposing hitters down these days.  He’s notched only one win in eight previous starts, and both his FIP and his xFIP are considerably higher than his ERA.  Current Giants Brandon Belt and Buster Posey both have excellent track records against Garcia; a hurler who hasn’t thrown many gems in recent seasons.  Take the Giants.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 27, 2017
Cubs vs Dodgers
Dodgers
-110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Take the LA Dodgers (#958)

My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Dodgers last night, and I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window supporting LA in a pick ‘em price range against the Cubs tonight.

All of a sudden, the Dodgers are back on Chicago’s radar…and in their collective heads.  Here’s the quote from Jake Arrieta following last night’s loss: “They've got a good team. They've got a good team pretty much every year…. Their bullpen has been tremendous. They've added some pieces, they've got a couple of young guys in the lineup and they're a good club year in and year out. They're a little bit better all around. They're a team we're going to have to compete against.”  Coming off series against the Giants, Brewers and Reds, this is a legit step up in class for the road team, a team that has been feasting on the weak all year.

I have no issues whatsoever supporting Brandon McCarthy in a pick em price range against John Lackey.  With the exception of one gem at Colorado earlier this month, Lackey has been very hittable, with a 4.93 FIP that nearly mirrors his 4.82 ERA.  Gopher balls have been a consistent problem for him, allowing multiple home runs in half of his starts.

Meanwhile, the Cubs lineup has cooled off, producing only 18 runs in their last five ballgames, in sharp contrast to a Dodgers lineup that has pounded out six runs or more six times in their last nine contests.  Brandon McCarthy threw four straight gems to open the season before a short stint on the DL.  And, after getting roughed up in that first start back off the DL, McCarthy threw another gem last time out, worthy of support tonight!  Take the Dodgers.  

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 27, 2017
Mariners vs Red Sox
Red Sox
-1½ +145 at 5Dimes
Won
$145
Play Type: Premium

Take the Boston Red Sox (#978) on the Run Line (-1.5)

Seattle stinks right now, an easy team to fade with a ‘plus price’ return on the Run Line.  The results don’t lie.  The Mariners are 1-6 over the past week, held to a single run or less in all six losses, ice cold offensively.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight tries on the highway, unable to win games against quality foes back East. 

But more than any other factor, this Run Line bet against the Mariners is based on all of the injuries that their pitching staff has suffered.  Seattle is trotting Rob Whalen out to the mound today because, quite simply, they have run out of options.  Whalen started five games with Atlanta last year and they weren’t pretty, finishing with a 6.57 ERA in just 24.2 innings of work.  This year, at AAA Tacoma, Whalen was winless in four tries before his callup, with an ERA above 4.00.

Why Whalen today?  Simple!  Seattle’s starting pitching staff is all on the DL.  Whalen will be the 12th different starter that the Mariners have been forced to use already – he’s not their first, second, third or even fourth choice for a mid-season callup.  Manager Scott Servais: "We're not looking for him to throw seven shutout innings. I'll take it ... but keep us in the ballgame. Do what he does.”  That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, and the Mariners bullpen behind him is dicey on a good day, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans should we need them.

Boston’s rookie lefty Brian Johnson doesn’t look like a potential ace either, but Seattle isn’t hitting lefties at all this year.  They’ve got a .213 batting average against southpaws while averaging more than a run and a half less per nine innings against opposing lefties.  Boston has won five in a row, finally hitting, and their bullpen is in good shape tonight following a series of quality starts on this homestand.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.

SERVICE BIO

Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..