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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State
Arkansas State
-3 -115 at 5Dimes
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Middle Tenn State enters this bowl game having failed to cover 4 straight bowl appearances and I'm betting on another loss here vs Arkansas State this week . I know a lot has been made of how Middle Tennessee State had to endure playing without injured QB Brent Stockstill the son of the Blue Raiders coach, but the truth is with or without him in the line this  MTSU is just plain over rated and according to my numbers in over their head vs Red Wolves team that out gained their final 7 opponents of the season. . Meanwhile, Arkansas State boasts an explosive QB Justice Hansen who averages 330 ypg, and has converted 34 TDs this season and the team as whole averages more than 2 TDs a game more than their opponents tonight. I waited to get -3 and a few books have made it available so, I have decided to pull the trigger.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS L/11 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and is   9-22 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Troy State vs Arkansas
OVER 159 -111 Lost
$111.0
Play Type: Premium

My  College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Middle Tennessee vs Auburn
Middle Tennessee
+3 -115 at BMaker
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

My  College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Middle Tenn State to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 16, 2017
Blazers vs Hornets
Blazers
+3½ -103 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Both teams will be playing the second half of a back-to-back, with the Trail Blazers having won 95-88 at Orlando on Friday night and the Hornets falling 104-98 at home to Miami. Also two of the leagues premier guards will go head to head, with Blazers Lillard and the Hornets Walker . In the past Lillard has gotten the better of Walker in their head-to-heads winning 7 off the L/10 matchups and I'm betting has the edge again tonight vs a side that has lost 9 of their L/11 games SU.

Charlotte is also on tired legs with a heavy schedule workload of late, which is not a good omen. CHARLOTTE is 10-23 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days

Note: Charlottes futility has been on display quite a bit this season, as they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

Whether this is an anomaly or note its still interesting that CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games on Saturday games.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover  

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 16, 2017
Blazers vs Hornets
OVER 204½ -108 Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

Charlotte enters this game having seen a combined average of 212.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers a have seen a combined average of 205 ppg get scored in their road tilts. My own numbers and matchup stats and projections put this total closer to 207, after considering both sides usual pace numbers, which gives us value to the over with this number we are betting into.

PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER in road games after a combined score of 185 points or less which happened in their 95-88 win vs the Magic yesterday. the combined average score of those tilts was 220.3 ppg.
 

CHARLOTTE  in 7 games  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing  14 or less turnovers/game this season, have seen a combined average of 217.9 ppg go on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Jets vs Blues
Jets
+115 at 5Dimes
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

The Blues will play the Winnipeg Jets in a home-and-home series beginning Saturday night in St. Louis.

The Blues are banged up with numerous injuries and having problems scoring goals which is never a good recipe for positive results. The Blues are under .500, 6-7, in their last 13 home games and have been shut out three times and scored just 10 goals in its last six home games. Meanwhile, Winnipeg their opponents are off a 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks last time out, but that was just their  first regulation loss at home in 11 games and they will be primed for a bounce back here vs a struggling side.

Jets are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Blues are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Jets are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on the Winnipeg Jets to win on the moneyline

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 16, 2017
Jazz vs Cavs
UNDER 210 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Jazz  played a physical game last night in the middle of a 6 game road trip and will now be exhausted  after beating the  Boston Celtics 107-95 on Friday. After last nights game they went out to the airport and  had to fly two hours to play a well  rested Cavaliers team  that has been home for almost a week. Needless to say their game plan tonight will be to survive via a slow paced effort which will effect the overall offensive output for both these teams.  It must also be noted that they Jazz  top big men got banged up last night as Favors (stitches above his eye)  and Gobert (left knee injury) if they play will be less than 100% which will also effect the Jazz offensive output in this spot. With that said, I'm betting on the Jazz third ranked D, and 24th ranked pace to be key elements in a stagnated combined offensive output vs an explosive opponent which will directly effect the combined score to fall below the posted Total.

UTAH is 38-19 UNDER  L/57  in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game.  Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 7-2-1 in Cavaliers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (79% or better), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 28-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 16, 2017
Clippers vs Heat
Clippers
+6 -102 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Tonight two teams the visiting LA Clippers and their hosts the Miami Heat are  missing key players and suffering through an array of injuries prepare to play each other after both sides played last night. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers, while the Heat are playing without key defensive cog Hassan Whiteside and Justice Winslow. Both have struggled at times, and both are desperate and working hard for wins/losses. Both sides have however, still found ways to win and both have collected victories in 3 of their L/4 outings. From a power rankings perspective and considering my own  margin deficit projections based on correlated  data, suggest we have value with the underdog visitor in this spot. It must also be noted that the Heat have struggled at home this season, and are just  2-13-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record like the Clippers.

Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Heat are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play on the LA Clippers

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 16, 2017
Bucks vs Rockets
Bucks
+11 -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Houston last night got the revenge they wanted for a Game 7 Western Conference semi final loss  they suffered last season vs the San Antonio  Spurs. It was a start to finish physical and  emotionally charged grueling  win for the Rockets that will now have them on tired legs and in an let  down situation.  Meanwhile, the Bucks are viable side, in this spot despite of them also playing on short rest after last nights sleepy looking loss to long time rivals the Bulls. Note:  Bucks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest and one of the better conditioned teams in  the NBA. The Rockets are just  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Also the  Rockets are also just  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

MILWAUKEE is 36-17 ATS L/53  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game .HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS  L/22 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots.HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS  L/21 in home games in non-conference games.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game are 15-51 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) 8-30 ATS L/21 seasons  for a 79% go against conversion rate.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Cincinnati vs UCLA
Cincinnati
-2½ -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
REVENGE is the key word here today for the Bearcats, as this talented team looks for some semblance of redemption for last seasons, loss to the Bruins in 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. I know Pauley Pavilion is not an easy place to play in but what must be mentioned is that UCLA has failed to cover 13 of their 18 at home vs a foe looking for revenge, With that said, look for a Bearcats side that is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 away vs PAC 12 teams to get their payback and get us a cover as well.

Play on Cincinnati to cover
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Utah vs BYU
Utah
+4½ -110 at BMaker
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

This marks the first rivalry meeting since Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak attempted to cancel the rivalry due to safety concerns.
The Utes are coming off a 77-67 win over Utah State in the inaugural Beehive Classic, which was held at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City.

The Utes rank first in the Pac-12 and sixth in the nation, giving up just a .263 three-point shooting percentage to opposing teams this season. It will be their defense that keeps them in this game, and the catalyst behind them covering vs an over rated current version  of this BYU hoops program.

Utah is 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series and have covered 4 straight visits here to Mormon City.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Seton Hall vs Rutgers
Seton Hall
-7 -115 at betonline
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

HC Kevin Willards /Seton Hall and his 4 returning starters from last season are a fine side, and ranked in the AP top 15 , and deservedly so , after starting this season, with a  9-1 record. Meanwhile, their opponents Rutgers have also compiled a decent 8-3 record, but 6 of those 8 victories have come against non line conference opposition. According to my own numbers /data and systems power rankings there is a larger divergence than 7.5 points here, and with that said I recommending we lay the lumber with the Pirates and their explosive front court.  Note: Seton Hall is  4-0 SU/ATS L/4 in this series and 8-0 ATS L/8 as visitors here.

Play on Seton Hall to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Butler vs Purdue
Butler
+7½ -105 at betonline
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

The 17th ranked Boilermakers are a fine team, but Butler has had this game circled for a while, and know the importance of this Indiana basketball matchup classic. It must noted that Butler has won 5 straight in this series, and have performed very well vs Big 10 competition in the past as is evident by a 21-11 SU record. Look for Butler and three key returning starters be the catalyst behind their cover this afternoon.

Butler to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Chargers vs Chiefs
UNDER 46 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

It's chilly this time of year in KC, and the warm weather Chargers I'm betting will be slowed down by the cool weather . It must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 14 of their L/16 home games in December/January. Considering the Chargers are 1-7 UNDER L/8 overall , and own the 2nd ranking scoring D in the NFL  I will not be surprised with a low scoring affair here this week.  When these teams played back in Sept the Chiefs took a physical 24-10 win and a similar type of score is not out of the question and according to my numbers a high probability outcome.

The Chargers road games this season average just 38.7 combined points per game.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER  L/7 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Reid is 19-6 UNDER  in a home game with KC where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored   LA CHARGERS is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in games where the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Chargers vs Chiefs
Chiefs
+1 -105 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

All teams go through slumps, including the KC chiefs, who ended a 4 game losing streak with a win last week vs the Oakland Raiders. Now with a little momentum on their sides I'm betting they take out a LA chargers side, that has won 4 straight games. I know Andy Reid's squad may not inspire bettors , but remember this is the NFL, and teams can go form zero to hero very quickly and vice versa. With that said, when using my player to player matchup systems and styles of play, my own analysis likes the way the Chiefs matchup vs the Chargers as was evident on Sept 24 in LA when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10.

KC is 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 12-35 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Marshall vs Colorado State
Marshall
+5½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM


The Marshall Thundering herd enter Bowl action with an established college football pedigree that must be respected. Marshall is 10-1 SU ATS in their L/11 Bowl games, and are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs .580 or better opposition like Colorado State. Meanwhile, Colorado State since beating up on Oregon State have been a disappointment this season, and are currently on a 0-6 ATS run.

CUSA Bowl teams are very successful of late winning 22 of their L/33 SU since 2011.

Holliday is 9-1 ATS L/10  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest .

Play on Marshall to cover
 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
North Texas vs Troy
North Texas
+7 -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

North Texas enters this game as TD underdog vs the Sun Belt champion Troy. However, it must be noted that UNT is 9-0 SU all time vs Sun Belt sides when they own a .500 record or better , and Troy is just 2-7 ATS /0-4 ATS L/4 as favs vs CUSA opposition and have failed to cover 3 of 4 as Bowl favorites. I know the Mean Green looked horrid in their championship tilt vs Florida Atlantic , but the good news is that CUSA Bowl teams are 13-2 ATS off a loss. Note: Conference USA sides  like N.Texas in Bowl Games over the L/6 seasons are 22-11 SU. I also noticed Troy looked wiped at the end of the season and despite of beating Arkansas State in their last game were actually out gained by more than 300 yards.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in road games after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points.

Play on North Texas to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Georgia State vs Western Kentucky
UNDER 52 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Both these teams struggled to put points on the board this season, with W.Kentucky averaging only 19 ppg away from home, and Georgia State 19.7 ppg overall on offense. I'm betting on points to once again be hard to by for both sides, and for the combined total score to end up on the low side of the number.

GEORGIA ST is 12-4 UNDER  L/16 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (GEORGIA ST/W.KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.