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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Ravens vs. Browns
Total
40 -110
  at  5DIMES
in 9h

Free pick on Browns OVER

I just don't think the mark here is high enough for Sunday's AFC North clash between the Ravens and Browns. I'm not expecting a 38-31 shootout or anything like that, but I don't think it's asking a lot for these two to eclipse 40 points. 

Cleveland's offense has shown some flashes since they added in Josh Gordon. He's caught 7 passes for 154 yards and score in two starts since returning from his suspension. I think he's starting to find his rhythm with DeShone Kizer and could be in store for a big day. Keep in mind the Ravens recently lost their best corner in Jimmy Smith and without him in their last game, Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown had 11 catches for 213 yards. Roethlisberger also connected 10 times with Jesse James and 9 times with Le'Veon Bell, as he threw for 506 yards. 

As for the Ravens offense, I think they were so bad early on that people are overlooking their strong showings of late. Baltimore's 38 points were definitely aided by the Steelers missing star linebacker Ryan Shazier, but they also had 44 the week before against Detroit and are averaging 31.3 ppg over their last 6. Cleveland's defense is better than it gets credit for, but it's also allowed 27 or more in 4 of their last 6 games. 

It's also worth noting that Baltimore has trended towards playing in high-scoring games than expected when coming off a heartbreaking division loss. The OVER is 16-6 in their last 22 games when they are coming off a loss by 3-points or less to a division rival. OVER is also 5-1 in their last 6 road games and 6-0 in their last 6 games played in December. Take the OVER! 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Virginia Tech vs Kentucky
Kentucky
-5½ -110 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on Kentucky -

Bonus free pick for CBB - no analysis provided

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Northern Iowa vs Iowa State
Northern Iowa
+2½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +

I absolutely love the value here with UNI as a dog in Saturday's neutral site showdown against in-state rival ISU. My power rankings show that the Panthers should be the ones favored in this contest. The big reason they aren't is the fact that the Cyclones come in having won 7 straight, but the best wins for ISU are a neutral site game against Boise State and a home win over Iowa. The Cyclones are also way down this year, as they lost a ton from last year's team and are likely headed for a finish near the basement of the loaded Big 12. 

UNI is an experienced team that has proven itself against some of the big boys early. The Panthers are 8-2 with the two losses coming away from home against the likes of UNC and Villanova. They also have some impressive wins, knocking off the likes of SMU, NC State and UNLV. 

Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Big, while ISU is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Missouri Vally. Panthers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral site and 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 off a win. Take Northern Iowa! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Clemson vs Florida
Florida
-5 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida -

I like the value here with the Gators laying a short number against Clemson on Saturday. While this is technically a neutral site game, it's going to feel like a home game for Florida, as it's being played in their home state at the BB&T Center. The Gators were able to right the ship after losing 3 straight with a 66-60 win over Cincinnati last time out. I look for this team to carry over that momentum here against the Tigers.

Gators are a solid 35-19 ATS in their last 54 games away from home when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Clemson on the other hand is a mere 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Florida! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Ohio vs Marshall
Marshall
-2½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Marshall -

I like the value here with Marshall as a short home favorite against the Bobcats. The Thundering Herd come in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. The most recent was an impressive 93-87 win at Toledo as a 5-point dog. As for Ohio, they are just 5-4 overall and have struggled away from home against better competition. Last time they were on the road was at Maryland on 12/7 and they lost by 25. Bobcats are giving up a staggering 85.2 ppg on the road and that's going to be a problem here against Marshall, as they come in averaging 89.3 ppg. 

Thundering Herd are 25-13 ATS in their last 38 as a favorite, 10-2 in their last 12 after playing a game as a road underdog and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Take Marshall! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee State
+4 -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Free pick on Middle Tennessee +

While not my favorite play on Saturday, I see a ton of value with Middle Tennessee as a dog against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl. The Blue Raiders really came up short on expectations this year. A lot of people thought this team would win C-USA coming off an 8-5 season with star QB Brett Stockstill coming back. They went just 6-6 and finished a mere 4-4 in league play. 

A big reason for their struggles was Stockstill suffered an injury in their 2nd game at Syracuse (won 30-23) and missed 6 games. By the time he returned they were just 3-5. He returned to the lineup and they went 3-1 to close out the season with the only loss coming in triple-overtime at WKU. In just 6 games, Stockstill threw for 14 TD's, including 7 in his last 3 games (also averaged 272 passing yards/game during this stretch). 

Arkansas State finished 3rd in the Sun Belt at 6-2, but a big part of that is they didn't have to play Appalachian St (T-1st) and Georgia State (4th). They did play Troy (T-1st), but lost to them at home. This team gets a lot of love cause they can move the ball and score points. They were 11th in the country in total offense at 498.4 ypg and 15th in scoring at 38.5 ppg. Clearly a good offensive team, but I think a big reason they are ranked so high is the schedule they have played. 

They did play Nebraska close in their opener, but that turned out to be a bad Cornhuskers team and they likely caught them a bit off guard. The game I think that says a lot about this team is their contest at SMU, which they lost 21-44. I think Stockstill torches this defense and the Red Wolves struggle to keep pace against a legit defense. Note that the Blue Raiders ranked 30th in total defense, giving up only 349 ypg. Take Middle Tennessee! 

Jimmy is the #10 Ranked NCAAF Handicapper in 2017 and is currently working on a Sizzling 103-78 (57%) Run L176 NCAAF!

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If you are looking to profit on the college gridiron Saturday get in on the action with Boyd's 5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl TOP PLAY!

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Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Chargers vs Chiefs
Chiefs
+1 -110 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* Chargers/Chiefs NFL ATS NO BRAINER on Chiefs +

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Kansas City as an underdog at home to the Chargers. The stakes couldn't be much higher for this one. The winner takes complete control of the AFC West, while the loser would be sitting at 7-7 and needing to likely win out just to have a chance at making the playoffs as a Wild Card. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I simply don't think the Chiefs home field edge is getting enough respect here. This is one of the toughest places to play in general and Arrowhead can be electric in these types of games. 

I also think it's huge that Kansas City is coming into this game off not just a win but an impressive win at home against the Raiders in what was also a huge game for this team. The Chiefs dominated their rivals from Oakland, taking a 26-0 lead into the 4th quarter. It could have been a lot worse, as KC missed some golden opportunities in the red zone and had to settle for field goals. They scored on 5 straight possessions to start the game if you ignore the drive right before the half where there was only a minute left and they ran out the clock. Keep in mind that was an equally big game for Oakland, as both teams were sitting at 6-6. 

I think that's the kind of performance that could propel them back to the form that had them start out 5-0. You also can't ignore the success that KC has had against the Chargers team. They beat them by 14 in LA earlier this season and have won 7 straight overall. It's also worth noting the Chiefs haven't lost a home division game since Week 2 of the 2015 seasons. Take Kansas City! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Oregon vs Boise State
Oregon
-7 -110 at BMaker
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -

A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team. 

Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach. 

As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman. 

On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down. 

As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon! 

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