College Bowl Game Predictions Wunderdog Sports January 09, 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers

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January, 09 2012 8:30pm EST
ATS: LSU Tigers +2.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers

Photo_cfb Here we are once again with the BCS Championship game between LSU and Alabama, and a swirl of controversy. What can't be denied, regardless of the result, is the dominance of the SEC which is ensured of their sixth straight BCS Championship. Game one featured defenses that ruled the roost, and for Alabama they did manage to out-gain the Tigers for the game, but squandered many opportunities to win. Remember however, that game was at home in front of over 100,000 fans all rooting on the Tide. The fact is, if these teams were pretty equal then and LSU came away with the win now they have them in a neutral environment, but one that will be all too familiar for the Tigers in their home state. The crowd edge goes to LSU. The Tigers have claimed the Championship twice in this very building which is certainly a more friendly and familiar environment that it is for the Tide. It certainly can be the difference maker here with all else being very close to equal. The Tigers have to do one thing and have the personnel to do it. They have to limit Trent Richardson who was really the only weapon Alabama produced in game one. Richardson ran for 89 yards, caught passes for 80 yards, and returned a kickoff for 23. That represented about 60% of the yards produced by Alabama, and with that said they still only generated 6 points. If they can clamp down on Richardson again, they will have a great opportunity to win here. They also need to get more touches from Michael Ford who carried 11 times for 72 yards - huge numbers considering the Tide's ability to defend the run. LSU also has the better quarterbacks and while that didn't play a big role in the first game, it just might here. LSU also has the advantage in the kicking game which could again play a huge role here. Over the years the words "wide right" have taken down many a talented football team, and don't be surprised to hear them again. This is a very close matchup so we get another small edge taking the points in a game that can easily go either way. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS this season vs. winning teams and 6-0 ATS vs. elite teams like Bama that outscore their opponents by 10+ ppg. Nick Saban can't be beat twice in the same season? He won't lose an important Bowl game? Consider that Saban is just .500 in his career in Bowl games (6-6) and that record would very likely be below .500 if Colt McCoy played beyond the first quarter for Texas a couple of years ago. My computer matchup for this game favors the Tigers and I agree. Play on LSU. I recommend buying the 1/2 point to get to +3 at -125 odds. If you can't, I still like the Tigers at +2.5 with -110 odds.