Free Weekly Nfl Picks Tony George Sports February 05, 2012 New York Giants @ New England Patriots

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February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New York Giants +3 (-120)
WIN for +4.17 unit(s)

New York Giants at New England Patriots

Photo_nfl

NY Giants +

Shooting myself for not putting this out at +3 or 3.5 when it opened up , over a fall number. You COULD buy this line to +3 if you want to but now at about half the books as of Monday before the Super Bowl it is back up to +3 at about 50% of the books. SHOP IT! Stats and ect do not matter this time of season in terms of capping the Super Bowl in its truest form. The Giants DEFENSE is the key. I have seen good defensive schemes from teams far less talented than the Giants slow the Patriots all year in big games. I mean Kansas City gave them a game for 3 quarters on Monday Night Football in Boston with Tyler Palko at QB. With Tom Brady’s #1 weapon at Tight End is questionable and not near 100%, even with shots in his ankle before the game, their offense is slowed but still will move the chains.

The Giants defense is better than their yearlong stats as advertised and their defense has got them to this point with a efficient offense led by Manning. So you add up a better running game, a QB that may not be as good as Brady, but damn near it, and the better defense overall. While I think BOTH defenses will struggle and allow points, I also think the Giants are better. Tom Coughlin a great coach, as is Belichick so it is a wash there. I have a slight hesitation based on double revenge from losing a Super Bowl to the Giants and losing at home in the regular season for the Pats. But revenge is out the window once the game starts on a neutral site. The other thing that stands out is the fact New England got outplayed at home by Baltimore. They got the game handed to them, while NY went out a took the win from San Fran. New England has not been impressive down the stretch and NY has, plain and simple. Manning is kool in the pocket and should benefit from extra time to throw it to Nicks and Cruz and Manningham, and those weapons along with a 1-2 punch at RB make them a tough beat for the Pats. At day’s end the key is the makeshift secondary of the Pats is not going to be able to handle the Giants receivers with consistency.

Play 1/2 Unit on the Giants

OVER – MY PREMIUM PLAY of Super the Bowl – The Total

As stated above, while the Giants defense is better, at day’s end I do not think either team will shut down the other one and they will end up trading points. I liked the under here for quite some time since this opening line, but it has dropped and I can see a 31-28 type game here after looking at this game 100 different ways and weighing my experience of 21 years and the different scenarios that are present here.. Belichick has stated publically it is about who has more points and points on the scoreboard negate his defense and their woes so the Pats will come out firing and open it up, and NY will no doubt be able to score against the secondary of the Pats. Lots of passing versus lots of running also eats less clock. I expect a shootout, indoors, fast track, no wind or weather to contend with.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER – The Premium Play

Same Game 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. Tease NY to +9 and Tease the Total down to 49 and take the OVER. Play 1 Unit

Prop Bets (moneyline plays) Odds used from Just Bet or BoDog

Danny Woodehead - New England - Over 10.5 Yards reiceving (-115)

Victor Cruz - NY - OVER 5.5 receptions -150 (TOP PLAY on Props)

More Passing Attempts - Tom Brady - New England (-115)

NY Giants record more rushing yards (-115)

Thanks for a great NFL Season overall and see you next year. Enjoy the game and lets get it done and make some money. I appreciate all your business this past season in the NFL.