Nite Owl Sports Available Picks

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New York Giants +3.5 (-120)
WIN for +4.17 unit(s)

New York Giants at New England Patriots

(ATS: New York Giants +3.5 (-120))

First update - see end of WU

Original pick WU follows: This huge ATS pick on NYG at +3.5 is based first on what we learned in NFL Playoff History 101, where it was noted that NYG is 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine playoff games, including 8-1 SU and ATS combined over the past 25 years in the NFC Title Game and the Super Bowl, while NE is a wallet-busting 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games, all with Captain Tom at the helm. And this pick on NYG is also supported by (i) what we saw from both of these two Super Bowl contestants Sunday, and (ii) the obvious parallel between TY’s NYG late season run to the Super Bowl through the end of their regular season plus the playoffs, and what they accomplished as a Wild Card entry in the 2007-08 playoffs, where they won three straight roadies, including the NFC Title Game in frigid Green Bay, and then upset the heavily favored NE Pats as massive 12 point dogs (also +400 on the ML) in the Super Bowl. That Super Bowl game, BTW, was the high point of our first NFL season with Top Ten (also TT’s first year), as we won 9 units with our two picks (5 units ATS and one unit ML at +400 odds) on NYG.

And while we recognize that NE, Captain Tom and NE head coach Darth Vader (aka Bill Belichick) will be out for revenge, not only for that Super Bowl upset loss but for TY’s 24-20 upset loss to NYG in Foxboro, the reality is that as good as Brady is, he simply has not dominated good defenses like he has the crappy ones – for example, here are some real numbers from TY – first, in that NYG upset win at Foxboro, Brady passed for 342 yards, but threw two picks, while Eli Manning, who was so well protected (no sacks) that his uniform was as clean after the game as it was at the opening kickoff,  was his usual “Mr. 4th Quarter” self, driving his team to the winning score in the final minute. Sunday against Balt, Brady threw for 239 YP but again threw two “picks” and had no TDPs, and was actually out-played by Balt’s Joe Flacco. And in Pats’ 25-17 loss TY at Pitt, Brady threw for just 198 yards and his offense generated only 17 points, while Big Ben carved up NE’s secondary for 365 YP, 25 points and the win. Oh, and how about that Feb. 2008 Super Bowl? Brady threw for 266 YP and a TDP w/o an interception, but was sacked five times, as his offense generated just an anemic 14 points, while a much less seasoned Eli Manning played well and made enough clutch plays to get the win.

So based on the above support, and getting NYG at +3.5 ATS on the early line, we’ll jump at that with this big 5 unit Play of the Day on NY, which will almost surely be our strongest pick on the Super Bowl. And we urge our subscribers to “get down” ASAP on NYG at +3.5, as the line already has dropped to 3 at many books, and as more sports cappers and the ever present (especially at this time of year) “betting public’ focuses on this game, the more support NY will likely get, so now (Monday morning, Jan 23) is probably the last we will see of +3.5 points for NY. And if you can still get NY at +3.5, we also urge you to tease NY up to +10.5 with the Under, teased up to 62> from the opening totals line of 55 or 55.5.

First update – with it being night-time on Monday, Jan 23 and this Super Bowl game nearly two weeks away, and Top Ten allowing us only two updates to our supporting write-up w/o requesting and receiving special permission, we normally would save our first update until later this week, at the earliest. However, with Nite Owl living up to his name and working into the “wee hours” Sunday night handicapping this game, as soon as we saw the opening line and knew which way it was likely to move, and releasing this pick on NYG at +3.5 Monday AM, but then seeing the line drop like a rock during the day today, to the point that one now has to lay -115 to -125 odds at most books to even get the Giants at +3, we decided to reward those early birds who have already made the smart move of either subscribing to our NFL package or buying this pick early, by giving our take on what to do if you are one of those whose line on this game is 3. And the two questions that we need to answer for our regular subscribers and those early bird individual purchasers are (i) should you play NYG now, even at +3 and (ii) how strong would we play NYG at +3 (i.e., how many units would NYG be at +3, given that we released them as a 5 unit POD pick at +3.5)? Given the fact that NYG seems to have much more betting support so far than NE, as indicated by the way the line is moving, and it seems unlikely that the line will suddenly start moving the other way absent some major negative occurrence for NY, which we don’t anticipate, our answer to the first question is yes, we would play NY now, even at +3, and even laying -120 or -125 odds, remembering that the “juice” only comes into play if your bet loses. And while we would not be surprised to see NY win the game SU, it’s always nice to have that 3 point cushion, and the line may not even stay at 3 for much longer. As to the second question, since it’s even nicer in an expected “war” (like this game is likely to shape up as) to have a 3.5 point cushion than one of  3 points, we would rate NY at +3 as a 3 unit pick, not a 5 unit one like at +3.5, or even a 4 unit one. Maybe that’s not what you guys (who have NY at +3) want to hear, but that’s our take on it.

And as long as we are using up one of our updates, anyway, following is some additional support for NY, based mostly on the Super Bowl history of both teams in the “modern era” (since 1990) and how each team fared TY against other legit Super Bowl contenders. First, NY is 2-1 SU and ATS in their 3 modern era Super Bowl appearances, starting with their classic upset win over Buffalo and Scott (wide right) Norwood in 1990-91, and most recently, their epic upset of previously undefeated NE in the February 2008 Super Bowl. In stark contrast, NE is a wallet-busting 3-7 ATS in their 10 playoff games over the last six seasons, all with Captain Tom at the helm, although it should be noted that the Pats were 6-4 SU in those same 10 games. Similarly, while NE is 3-2 SU in their five Super Bowl appearances this century, all but one of them (their loss to GB in the 1996-97 Super Bowl) with Captain Tom at QB and head coach Darth Vader (aka Bill Belichick) running the show, they are a crappy 1-4 ATS in those five Super Bowls, including 0-3 ATS in the three where they were favored, despite winning two of the 3 SU, with all 3 games (where they were favored) decided by just 3 points.

And looking at TY, NE was 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS against the three legit Super Bowl contenders that they played, with back to back mid-season upset losses to Steelers and these Giants (the latter at home), and the only bright spot their controversial win Sunday over Balt (controversial because an apparent game winning TD catch by Balt in final minute was disallowed, apparently because the receiver allegedly did not have full possession of the ball when his second foot hit the end zone turf, despite having clear possession in the end zone for at least a full second). On the other hand, NYG was a better 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against the six legit Super Bowl contenders they played TY (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and avenged two of their 3 regular season losses to such teams with road playoff upset wins at both SF and GB.

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
MONEYLINE: New York Giants +140
WIN for +2.8 unit(s)

MONEYLINE: New York Giants +140

We won’t repeat all of our support for NYG here, as that was covered in the supporting WU for our ATS pick on NY. However, some of it does deserve repeating, as support for why we believe NYG has a good shot to win this game SU as well as cover ATS vs the early +3.5 point spread. Again, NYG is 9-1 SU and ATS in their ten playoff games since the 2000 season, and 8-1 SU and ATS combined over the past 25 years in the NFC Title Game and the Super Bowl, their only loss in those nine high profile games being to Balt in the 2000 -01 Super Bowl. And in the modern era (since 1990), NY is 2-1 SU and ATS in their 3 Super Bowl appearances, starting with their classic upset win over Buffalo and Scott (wide right) Norwood in 1990-91, and most recently, their epic upset of previously undefeated NE in the February 2008 Super Bowl. In stark contrast, NE is a wallet-busting 3-7 ATS in their 10 playoff games over the last six seasons, all with Captain Tom at the helm, although for purposes of this ML pick on NY it should be noted that the Pats were 6-4 SU in those same 10 games. Similarly, while NE is 3-2 SU in their five Super Bowl appearances this century, all but one of them (their loss to GB in the 1996-97 Super Bowl) with Captain Tom at QB and head coach Darth Vader (aka Bill Belichick) running the show, they are a crappy 1-4 ATS in those five Super Bowls, including 0-3 ATS in the three where they were favored, despite winning two of the 3 SU, with all 3 games decided by just 3 points.

And looking at TY, NE was 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS against the three legit Super Bowl contenders that they played, with back to back mid-season upset losses to Steelers and these Giants (the latter at home), and the only bright spot their controversial win Sunday over Balt (controversial because an apparent game winning TD catch by Balt in final minute was disallowed, apparently because the receiver allegedly did not have full possession of the ball when his second foot hit the end zone turf, despite having clear possession in the end zone for at least a full second). On the other hand, NYG was a better 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against the six legit Super Bowl contenders they played TY (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and avenged two of their 3 losses to such teams with road playoff upset wins at both SF and GB.

So based on the above support, plus our additional support given in the supporting WU for our ATS pick on NY, we believe that NYG has a decent shot to win this Super Bowl game SU, and thus will also go with the “G-Force” for 2 more units at +140 on the ML, where a SU win by NY will net us +2.8 units.

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
TOTAL: Under 55.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

TOTAL: Under 55.5 (-110)

Update - see end of WU for our unofficial team totals pick, our Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring (with pick specific support for same), our line value totals hedge teaser play and our advice re playing 2H Over (or not)

Original pick WU follows: With the Super Bowl being played indoors TY at Lucas Field in Indy, in “perfect” climate controlled conditions and on a “fast track,” and two very good QBs opposing each other, we assumed that both the line makers and the so-called “betting public’ would favor the Over , but after both conference championship games staying Under the total, we also assumed that the opening totals line for this game would be closer to 52 than its actual opening line of 55. And after waiting to see which way the betting action moved the total, hoping that the “masses of asses” would push it up even higher, both expecting and wanting to see a high scoring shoot-out, the “masses” did not disappoint us, as they did in fact bet the total up past the key totals # of 55 to an Under-friendly 55.5, which means it’s now time for the Owl to swoop down and sink his talons into the Under.

And this pick is not just some knee jerk, contrarian gut reaction, but rather is supported by actual totals results and #s in several representative games, most of them being games played by both teams TY. But before we get to that, we’ll remind our subscribers of our observation that as good as Brady is, he simply has not dominated good defenses like he has the crappy ones – for example, here are some real numbers from TY – first, in that NYG upset win at Foxboro, Brady passed for 342 yards, but threw two picks, and the Pats not only were held to 20 points, but held scoreless for the entire first half. Then on Sunday against Balt, Brady threw for 239 YP but again threw two “picks” and had no TDPs, and was actually out-played by Balt’s Joe Flacco. And in Pats’ 25-17 loss TY at Pitt, Brady threw for just 198 yards and his offense generated only 17 points. Oh, and how about that Feb. 2008 Super Bowl? Brady threw for 266 YP and a TDP w/o an interception, but was sacked five times, as his offense generated an anemic 14 points, while a much less seasoned (than now) Eli Manning played well enough to get his team the win, but the Giants still scored just 17 points in a 31 point Under, in a game where the totals line was a similar (to this game) 54.5.

Looking at both teams’ totals results TY in games played against other legit Super Bowl contenders, they combined to 4-5 Under. More specifically, NE was 0-3 to the Under, with an average of just 43 total points against the three legit Super Bowl contenders that they played TY, with an average of just 43 total points in those 3 key games -- just 42 and 44 total points in their back to back mid-season upset losses to Steelers and these Giants, then 43 in their controversial win Sunday over Balt (controversial because an apparent game winning TD catch by Balt in final minute was disallowed, apparently because the receiver allegedly did not have full possession of the ball when his second foot hit the end zone turf, despite having clear possession in the end zone for at least a full second). And not to dwell on it, but that call and Balt’s subsequent missed FG made our Over (50) pick on that game a loser rather than a “push” or possibly a win (if game had gone to OT tied at 23 and ended on a TD), although it kept alive our mega teaser of NE, the Over (in that game) and SF, a play which ultimately went 2-0-1 and “cashed’ for us. On the other hand, NYG was 4-2 to the Over, with an average of 55 total points, against the six legit Super Bowl contenders they played TY (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans). And with that mid-season game between these two at Foxboro having major relevance to this game, a look at the weird scoring pattern in that game is in order – after a scoreless 1H, both offenses got untracked and generated 44 total 2H points, but the “burden” to the Over caused by the scoreless 1H was too much to overcome, and the final score (NY 24, NE 20) still fell a full TD short of the total for that game. And while we really don’t know quite what to make of that game as far as predicting the totals result for this game, we will say that we don’t quite understand why the total for this game should be 4.5 points higher than for that one, played in Foxboro, MA in late afternoon, local time, on an early November day featuring good FB weather (game time temp of 54 degrees and mostly clear skies). And we also note that those who put too much ‘stock’ in the totals result of a regular season game between two Super Bowl contestants made a big mistake in that February 2008 Super Bowl between these two, as these two teams followed up a season-ending 73 point score fest in the regular season finale for both teams (in a night game in NY on Dec 29) with their 31 point defensive “war” in the Super Bowl, the latter being played in perfect climate controlled conditions and on a “fast track” at indoor Phoenix Stadium, much like the ‘perfect’ playing conditions for this game at indoor Lucas Oil Stadium. 

And how about the totals results and #s for both teams in their biggest games (i.e, Super Bowls and conference championship games) played since the year 2000)? First, including TY’s conference championship games, NE has played in four Super Bowls and six AFC Title games since 2000 (i.e., all in the Brady-Belichick era), while NYG has played in two Super Bowls and 3 NFC Title games since 2000 (with one of the Super Bowls and two of the NFC Title games having been played in the Manning-Coughlin era). In NE’s games, the Pats were 1-3 Under in their four most recent Super Bowls, averaging a surprisingly low 43.5 total points, and 3-3 vs the total in their six AFC Title games since 2000, with two of the Overs high scoring (72 at Indy in January 2007 and 68 at Pitt in January 2005) and the other four in the 30s and 40s, for an average of 49 total points. Combining and averaging those NE totals results and #s, and giving more weight to the Super Bowl results due to them being more relevant, gives the Under a 6-4 edge and projects 46 total points for this game. And performing the same analysis for NY’s two Super Bowls and 3 NFC Title games since 2000, we get 1-1 vs the total in the two Super Bowls, with an average of just 36 total points, and 1-2 Under in the 3 NFC Title games, with an average of 40 total points. Combining and averaging those NYG totals results and #s, and again giving more weight to the Super Bowl results due to them being more relevant, gives the Under a 3-2 edge and projects 38 total points for this game. And taking the final step of this analysis, that of combining and averaging the totals results and #s for both teams in these games, again giving more weight to the Super Bowl totals ATS results and #s due to them being more relevant and also more weight to NE’s #s because they involve more relevant games (ten as opposed to just five for NY), we get a nice 9-6 edge for the Under, but much more significantly, a projected 43.5 total points being scored in this game, a full 12 points less than the current totals line of 55.5.

So based on the above support, and our belief that Brady will be held relatively in check by the aggressive sack-happy Giants defense and that the bend but don’t break NE defense will keep NY’s scoring somewhere in the 20s, we’ll step out big time with this 5 unit POD pick on the full game Under 55.5, and may even upgrade it to GOM or GOY status during the nearly two weeks between now and the Super Bowl (in which event we will of course let our subscribers know). And assuming that your totals line is 55.5, play the full game Under NOW, as the difference between 55 and 55.5 for an NFL total in a game expected (at least by the line makers) to be high scoring is huge, while the difference between 55.5 and 56 is not all that significant, as for the latter to come into play w/o some freakish scoring there would have to be 8 TDs (plus extra points) and no FGs, which is very rare in NFL games and very unlikely here, even with NE being one of the two teams playing. But if your totals line is still 55, then we advise waiting for it to go up to 55.5 before playing the full game Under, as with the huge amount of betting action on this game and the millions of fans betting it, and most of those marginally knowledgeable fans betting the Over because they will be watching the game and they want it to be high scoring and exciting, the totals line seems more likely to end up at 55.5 or more than at 55 or less.

And finally, before you play the full game Under, save some of your Under money for likely partial game Under picks on both the 1H and 1Q totals, and remember (if you have not already done so) to tease the total up even higher, to 62>, with NYG, provided that you still have the Giants at +3 and thus can tease them up to +10.

Final update – first is our line value totals hedge teaser play, which attempts to take advantage of the major recent line drop on the total (from 55 most of the week down to 53 today) and partly hedge against our big full game totals pick and our unofficial teaser play on NYG to the Under, and that’s to do a 3 team, 7 point teaser of NE teased to +4 with NYG teased to +10 and the Over teased down to 46 or even 46.5.

Second is our recommendation to play NE Under on their individual team totals line, which is still 29 at most books and even 29.5 at some (surprisingly high given the line drop of the full game totals line, but that’s one reason why we like team totals, because they get a lot less play than the full game totals and thus are less sensitive to line moves).

Third is our “prop” play that the 2H will have more scoring than the 1H. And the line for taking the 2H is -1/2 point and -145 odds, with the 2H scoring including OT points if game goes to OT (so our 2H Over prop the play wins if there is 1> more points scored in 2H (plus any OT points) than in the 1H, regardless of how many points are scored in either half). We don’t usually do prop plays ourselves or recommend them to subscribers, but this is one that we really like. We know that finding props on sports book menus can be a time consuming PITA, so if you want to play this prop, don’t wait until too close to kickoff (many books take down their props a half hour before KO), and it may be better to just call and tell the clerk what the prop is, see if they have it, and see if they will take it over the phone or if not, at least tell you where it is on there on line props menu). BTW, we are not permitted by Top Ten to assign units to our prop play because it’s not an “official” pick.

And here is our pick specific support for our above Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring, which support consists of the first and 2H scoring results from the last 12 Super Bowls (this century), with particular emphasis on the five (of those last 12) Super Bowls in which at least one of these two teams played. In those last 12 Super Bowls, the 2H had more scoring than the 1H in nine of them, with an average of 24 total 2H points, compared to just 18 total 1H points, while in the five Super Bowls involving at least one of these two teams, including the Feb 2008 Super Bowl between them featuring a “robust” 10 total 1H points, the difference was even more pronounced, with the 2H  having had more scoring than the 1H in ALL 5, with an average of 28 total 2H points, compared to just 15 total 1H points.

Finally, here is our advice re playing the 2H Over (if the circumstances support doing so). Based on the above support for our 1H/2H scoring prop, it will make sense to play the 2H Over, and will also be a good hedge against our big full game Under pick and our unofficial teaser play on NYG to the Under, provided that (i) there are no game-ending injuries to any key offensive skill player(s) for either team and (ii) the HT score and the 2H totals line gives us good value with the Over (e.g., a 2H totals line of 27<, with an adjusted full game totals line of 48<). But remember, if the game is close and you already played our above recommended 3 team teaser on NE, NYG and the Over (46 or 46.5), you will already have some ‘action’ on the full game Over if the adjusted totals line is > 46).

Good luck with our official pick on the full game Under and our unofficial recommendations, and enjoy the game!

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Under 10.5 (-120)
WIN for +4.17 unit(s)

FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Under 10.5 (-120)

Normally we would not repeat here all of our support for the Under in this game, as that was covered fully in the supporting WU for our big full game totals pick. And while we won’t repeat ALL of that support, we are going to repeat much of it, since this 1Q Under pick is a huge one and we are offering it individually as our NFL Playoff Partial Game Total of the Year.

First, note that this 1Q Under pick is not just some knee jerk, contrarian gut reaction, but rather is supported by actual partial game (and specifically 1Q) totals results and #s in several representative games, most of them being games played by both teams TY. But before we get to that, we’ll remind our subscribers of our observation that as good as Brady is, he simply has not dominated good defenses like he has the crappy ones – for example, here are some real numbers from TY – first, in that NYG upset win at Foxboro, Brady passed for 342 yards, but threw two picks, and the Pats not only were held to 20 points, but held scoreless for the entire first half. Then on Sunday against Balt, Brady threw for 239 YP but again threw two “picks” and had no TDPs, and was actually out-played by Balt’s Joe Flacco. And in Pats’ 25-17 loss TY at Pitt, Brady threw for just 198 yards and his offense generated only 17 points. Oh, and how about that Feb. 2008 Super Bowl? Brady threw for 266 YP and a TDP w/o an interception, but was sacked five times, as his offense generated an anemic 14 points, while a much less seasoned (than now) Eli Manning played well enough to get his team the win, but the Giants still scored just 17 points in a 31 point Under, in a game where the totals line was a similar (to this game) 54.5. So we believe that Brady will be held relatively in check by the now healthy and cohesive aggressive, sack-happy Giants defense, and that the previously maligned but recently bend but don’t break NE defense will keep NY’s scoring somewhere in the 20s.

And now we will provide our pick specific support for this huge 1Q Under pick. And that support is based on (i) the 1Q totals results and #s of the last 12 Super Bowls (with at least one of these two teams having played in five of those 12 Super Bowls) and (ii) the 1Q totals results and #s of nine key representative games that both teams played against legit Super Bowl contenders, 8 of those games having been played TY – and those games consist of six for NYG (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and four for NE (their playoff game last Sunday vs Balt, their game at Pitt, and their HG vs NYG, all TY, plus their Feb. 2008 Super Bowl loss to NYG). And with that mid-season game between these two at Foxboro having particular relevance to this game, it was included in both teams’ lists (thus nine total games, not ten). And while the scoreless 1H (and obviously 1Q as well) in that NE-NYG game TY is unquestionably very relevant for this pick, we can’t automatically assume that their scoring for this Super Bowl will follow the same weird pattern that their regular season game did (and those who made that same assumption when these two played in the Feb 2008 Super Bowl just a little over a month after playing a wild 73 point score fest in NY to end their regular seasons found out they had made a big mistake). And speaking of that 73 point Over between these two, note that just 10 total 1Q points were scored before the ‘flood gates’ opened. In any event, in NY’s six games, they were 2-4 to the 1Q Under and averaged just 7 total 1Q points, including a pair of scoreless 1Qs against high scoring NE and NO, while in their four key games, NE was an even stronger 1Q Under team, staying well under in all four with a 0-4 Under mark and an UNBELIEVABLY LOW average of just 3 total 1Q points.

Our other main pick specific support for this 1Q Under pick comes from the 1Q totals results and #s of the last 12 Super Bowls (this century), which we believe is quite relevant, not only because it shows a clear Super Bowl 1Q scoring trend but also because at least one of these two teams played in five of those 12 Super Bowls. Those 12 Super Bowls not only went 2-10 to the Under vs the 1Q line, averaging just 6 total 1Q points, but the five Super Bowls involving at least one of these two teams, including the Feb 2008 Super Bowl between these two featuring a “robust” 3 total 1Q points, went 0-5 to the 1Q Under, averaging a ridiculous 2.6 total 1Q points.

And as we saw in last Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between Balt and NE, teams in the red zone late in the 1Q (like Balt was) are in no hurry to rush and score before the quarter break, when they know they get a free time out and can score in the first minute or two of the 2Q, like Balt did, after a 3 point 1Q, making the 1Q Under 2-0  in Sunday’s two conference Championship Games (with 3 and 7 total 1Q points in those two games). On the other hand, the “down side” of playing the 1Q Under is that while the “breaks” and the big plays tend to even out over the full course of a game, one big play (e.g., a KO or punt return for a TD, a long pass completion or breakaway run by one of the offenses, or a “pick six” or fumble recovery/return for a TD by the defense) or a bad break (such as an untimely “pick six”  or fumble recovery in the end zone or deep in the opponents territory, or a  bad call by the “zebras”) can be “fatal” to a 1Q Under play, where such plays/breaks obviously have more impact, with the relatively low totals line and short time frame.

But based on all of the above support, and with both offenses having a limited amount of time and possessions to get into “sync” and start scoring TDs, it should come as no surprise that we are very “bullish” on the 1Q Under, at a line of 10.5, where (for example) a 7-3 first quarter gets us the money, and so we are willing to take the big play/bad break risk described above, and will thus make this pick 1Q on Under 10.5 not only a 5 unit mega pick but our NFL Playoff Partial GameTotal of the Year. And assuming your 1Q totals line is 10.5, there is no good reason to wait on playing the 1Q Under at 10.5, as a line move up to 11-12.5 would not only be insignificant (for a 1Q totals line) but would also be accompanied by higher odds, and a move down to 10 would “suck” most of the line value out of this 1Q Under pick. And speaking of line value, also note that we will likely have a (smaller) 1H Under play as well, but are waiting for the 1H line to “bump up” from the current 27.5 that it is on the Top Ten picks menu to 28, where it already is at many books in Vegas and off-shore.

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
FIRST HALF TOTAL: Under 27.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

FIRST HALF TOTAL: Under 27.5 (-110)

Final update - support for our Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring and advice re playing 2H Over (or not)

First Update - see end of write-up for good Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring

Original pick WU follows: In addition to our two 5 unit slammers on the full game and 1Q Unders, we also like the 1H Under at 27.5. As indicated in the WU for our 1Q Under pick released last week, we , but waited for a full week for the 1H line to “bump up” from the 27.5 that it has been for the past 8 days on the Top Ten picks menu to 28, where it was initially at many books in Vegas and off-shore. But the consensus 1H totals line now 27.5, and the full game totals line now down to 54.5 at some books with Over players holding back due to the uncertain condition and playing status of NE TE Rob Gronkowski, who we see as almost as key of a cog to the NE passing attack as QB Tom Brady, so it’s time to jump on the 1H under at 27.5, as we believe  that an unlikely line move up to 28 would not only be accompanied by higher odds, but also would be less significant (for a 1H totals line) than a move down to 27, which would “suck” most of the line value out of this 1H Under pick.

We won’t repeat here all of our overall support for the Under in this game, since that is covered fully in the detailed supporting WUs for our two huge 5 unit slammers on the full game and 1Q Unders. Rather, we’ll focus here on our pick specific support for this 1H Under pick, which is based on (i) the 1H totals results and #s of the last 12 Super Bowls (with at least one of these two teams having played in five of those 12 Super Bowls) and (ii) the 1H totals results and #s of nine key representative games that both teams played against legit Super Bowl contenders, 8 of those games having been played TY – and those games consist of six for NYG (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and four for NE (their playoff game last Sunday vs Balt, their game at Pitt, and their HG vs NYG, all TY, plus their Feb. 2008 Super Bowl loss to NYG). And with that mid-season game between these two at Foxboro (featuring a scoreless 1H) having particular relevance to this game, it was included in both teams’ lists (thus nine total games, not ten). But while the scoreless 1H in that regular season NE-NYG game TY is unquestionably very relevant for this pick, we can’t automatically assume that their scoring for this Super Bowl will follow the same weird pattern which that game did (and those who made that same assumption and pounded the Over when these two played in the Feb 2008 Super Bowl just a little over a month after playing a wild 73 point score fest in NY to end their regular seasons found out they had made a big mistake). In any event, in NY’s six key representative games, they were 2-4 to the 1H Under and averaged just 20.5 total 1H points, including that scoreless 1H against NE, while in their four key games, NE was surprisingly an even stronger 1H Under team, staying well Under the 1H totals line in 3 of the four, with an UNBELIEVABLY LOW (for Pats) average of just 15 total 1H points. Combining and averaging the 1H totals results and #s from those nine key games gives the 1H under a strong 7-3 edge and projects just 18 total 1H points in this game.

Our other main pick specific support for this 1H Under pick comes from the 1H totals results and #s of the last 12 Super Bowls (this century), which we believe is quite relevant, not only because it clearly shows a low Super Bowl 1H scoring trend but also because at least one of these two teams played in five of those 12 Super Bowls. Those 12 Super Bowls not only went 5-7 to the Under vs the 1H line, averaging just 18 total 1H points, but (i) they went 2-10 Under vs the 1H totals line of 27.5 posted for this game and (ii) the five Super Bowls involving at least one of these two teams, including the Feb 2008 Super Bowl between these two featuring a “robust” 10 total 1H points, went 1-4 to the 1H Under, averaging an “Under-friendly” 15 total 1H points.

So based on the above pick specific support plus our overall support for the Under, we’ll make this 3 unit POD pick on 1H Under 27.5, and note that (i) it would be more like a 4 unit POD were it not for the fact that we already have a lot riding on the Under with our mega plays on the full game and 1Q Unders, and (ii) with the totals line starting to ‘dip” a bit at some books as noted above, we suggest playing the H Under NOW at 27.5 rather than waiting for an unlikely upward line move to 28.

Update - here's a good good Super Bowl prop bet involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring. We don’t usually do prop plays ourselves or  recommend them to subscribers, but here’s one that we really like, and which we are mentioning in connection with our 1H Under pick, because the “prop” is that the 2H will have more scoring than the 1H. And the line for taking the 2H is -1/2 point and -145 odds, with the 2H scoring including OT points if game goes to OT -- so our 2H Over prop the play wins if there is 1> more points scored in 2H (plus any OT) than in the 1H, regardless of how many points are scored in either half). We’ll add some pick specific support for this prop play with an update if time permits, but we wanted to get it to you guys now, because finding props on sports book menus can be a time consuming PITA (it may be better to just call and tell the clerk what the prop is, see if they have it, and see if they will take it over the phone or if not, at least tell you where it is on there on line props menu), and we wanted to give you lots of lead time. BTW, we are not permitted by Top Ten to assign units to this prop play because it is not an “official” pick.

Final update – with this final update we offer (i) some pick specific support for our above Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring and(ii) advice re playing 2H Over (if the circumstances support doing so). First, our pick specific support for our Super Bowl prop bet consists of the first and 2H scoring results from the last 12 Super Bowls (this century), with particular emphasis on the five (of those last 12) Super Bowls in which at least one of these two teams played. In those last 12 Super Bowls, the 2H had more scoring than the 1H in nine of them, with an average of 24 total 2H points, compared to just 18 total 1H points, while in the five Super Bowls involving at least one of these two teams, including the Feb 2008 Super Bowl between them featuring a “robust” 10 total 1H points, the difference was even more pronounced, with the 2H  having had more scoring than the 1H in ALL 5, with an average of 28 total 2H points, compared to just 15 total 1H points.

And based on the above support, it also will make sense to play the 2H Over, provided that (i) there are no game-ending injuries to any key offensive skill player(s) for either team and (ii) the HT score and the 2H totals line gives us good value with the Over (e.g., a 2H totals line of 27<, with an adjusted full game totals line of 48<).

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
First ½ ATS: New York Giants +1 (-105)
PUSH

First ½ ATS: New York Giants +1 (-105)

We won’t repeat here all of our overall support for NYG in this game, since that is covered fully in the detailed supporting WUs for our two full game picks on them. Rather, we’ll focus here on our pick specific support for this 1H ATS pick on NY, which is based on the 1H ATS results and #s of nine key representative games that both teams played against legit Super Bowl contenders, 8 of those games having been played TY – and those games consist of six for NYG (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and four for NE (their playoff game last Sunday vs Balt, their game at Pitt, and their HG vs NYG, all TY, plus their Feb. 2008 Super Bowl loss to NYG). And with that mid-season game between these two at Foxboro (featuring a scoreless 1H and a NYG ATS cover vs the 1H line) having particular relevance to this game, it was included in both teams’ lists (thus nine total games, not ten). In NY’s six key representative games, they were 3-2-1 vs the 1H line with an average HT deficit of 2 points, including that scoreless 1H tie at NE, while in their four key games, despite having the HT lead in two of them, NE was surprisingly crappy 0-4 ATS vs the 1H line (including 0-2 ATS in the two games vs NYG), with an average HT score of tie. Combining and averaging the 1H ATS results and #s from those nine key games gives NYG a strong 7-2-1 ATS edge but projects a one point HT deficit for NY. So with the 1H line for NY being +1, we’ll take NY for two units ATS at +1 (pass at < 1), based on their above detailed 7-2-1 ATS edge over NE vs the 1H line in those key representative games, but we will leave it at that.

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
FIRST QUARTER MONEYLINE: New York Giants +110
WIN for +1.1 unit(s)

FIRST QUARTER MONEYLINE: New York Giants +110

We won’t repeat here all of our overall support for NYG in this game, since that is covered fully in the detailed supporting WUs for our two full game picks on them. Rather, we’ll focus here on our pick specific support for this 1Q ML pick on NY, which is based on the 1Q results and #s of nine key representative games that both teams played against legit Super Bowl contenders, 8 of those games having been played TY – and those games consist of six for NYG (NE, GB twice, SF twice and New Orleans) and four for NE (their playoff game last Sunday vs Balt, their game at Pitt, and their HG vs NYG, all TY, plus their Feb. 2008 Super Bowl loss to NYG). And with that mid-season game between these two at Foxboro (featuring a scoreless 1Q tie and a NYG ATS cover vs the 1Q line) having particular relevance to this game, it was included in both teams’ lists (thus nine total games, not ten). In NY’s six key representative games, they were 5-1 ATS vs the 1Q line with an average 1Q score of tie, including that scoreless 1Q tie at NE, one of three 1Q ties in their six roadies, while in their four key games, NE was 1-3 ATS vs the 1Q line (including 0-2 ATS in the two games vs NYG), with an average deficit of 2 points after 1Q. Combining and averaging the 1Q results and #s from those nine key games gives NYG a strong 1Q 8-2 ATS edge over NE and a decent 4-2-2 edge over Pats vs the 1Q ML, and  projects a one point lead after 1Q for NY. And with the “juice’ being a “heavy” -155 to get that half point ATS with NY on the 1Q line but the 1Q ML being +110 for NY, we’ll make our 1Q play on NY only on the ML, for one unit at +110.

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New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
Update - see end of WU for our unofficial team totals pick, our Super Bowl prop play involving 1H scoring vs 2H scoring (with pick specific support for same), our line value totals hedge teaser play and our advice re playing 2H Over (or not) Original pick WU follows: With the Super ... read more

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New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
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New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
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New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
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