Nick Parsons Available Picks

May, 15 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 184 (-110)
WIN for +1.82 unit(s)

New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs

UNDER the total in San Antonio vs New Orleans @ 9:05 PM ET As written in Tuesdays analysis of the under in Game Five: After scoring just eighty points in Game Four in San Antonio on Sunday, one might think that New Orleans coach Byron Scott might be most upset about the Hornets offense. However, it was the lack of defense that caught Coach Scotts ire after the loss on Sunday. New Orleans scored just eighty points on Sunday but Coach Scott knows that the Hornets offense is at its best when it feeds off the defense. New Orleans is at its worst when it doesnt get stops on the defensive end and the Hornets allow the Spurs to work the game into a half court affair. As expected the Hornets played a very strong defensive game on Tuesday and held the Spurs to just 79 points and we cashed our ticket on the under. Now, as the series shifts back to San Antonio for a crucial Game Six, both teams will be emphasizing defense. The Hornets know they must play well on the defensive end if they want to have any chance of securing the road upset here and eliminating the Spurs. As for San Antonio, the Spurs are a polished, veteran team that knows how to get what they want. That said, even though the Hornets are working very hard at continuing to improve their defense (and continuing to make the proper adjustments) heading into Game Six, its the Spurs who are likely to impose their will defensively and that will continue to force half-court sets. Of course, half-court sets are what the Spurs thrive on and theyre also what under players thrive on and thats us tonight! Up until a poor Game Five performance, San Antonios results had improved since Tim Duncan got healthy and since they switched up the defensive assignments. Duncan was bothered with flu-like symptoms early in this series but hes now shown flashes of being the dominant player he is capable of being when healthy. He alters opponents offensive strategies and he does it very well! The Spurs also switched things up by putting Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic and this has really slowed down the offensive production of Stojakovic! From half time of Game Three in San Antonio until half time of Game Five in New Orleans, the Hornets went eight straight quarters without scoring more than 23 points in a quarter! Needless to say, the defensive adjustments of the Spurs were working! Unfortunately for Spurs fans, San Antonios defense fell apart in the third and fourth quarters of Game Five in New Orleans and the Spurs allowed 57 points in the second half of Tuesdays game! That type of performance is highly unlikely to be repeated in Game Six in San Antonio. In fact, four of the five games in this series have finished with 186 points or less and it is far more likely that we see a tighter defensive struggle than a high-scoring game like we saw in Game Three in San Antonio. This is especially true because this is an elimination game. Also note that Coach Scott made some defensive adjustments for the Hornets heading into Game Five and they were worked into their repertoire quite well in slowing down the Spurs offense as they held them to just 79 points in Game Five. On Thursday, San Antonios elite defense will rejoin the mix and that means its quite a defensive battle that should be on tap here. In a crucial game featuring two of the best defensive clubs in the Western Conference, this one definitely has U-N-D-E-R written all over it!