Nick Parsons Available Picks

May, 29 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 193.5 (-110)
LOSS for -2 unit(s)

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers

OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:05 PM ET Not a single game in the Western Conference Finals has found its way over the total yet in this series. Of course, if the Lakers defend their home court tonight, this series is over! So, the question is whether or not a game in this series will get over the total. We can answer that question with an emphatic Yes because the situation here is perfect for an over. The Spurs have had their two best offensive games of the series in the last two games as they averaged 97 points per game in the two games in San Antonio. Keep in mind that they also faced elimination in Game 7 in New Orleans in their prior series and they won that game and scored 91 points. The Spurs are a veteran team that knows what it takes to win on the road. Look for Manu Ginobili to again come up with a big effort in Game Five just like he did in Game Three. The Spurs know they must have all three of the big three playing at the top of their games if they want to have any shot of staying alive for a Game Six back home in San Antonio. In Game Four, the Spurs Tony Parker and Tim Duncan each had big games but Ginobili let them down with a seven point performance. Ginobili is certainly capable of bouncing back here in a must win situation and look for a potential wild card for the Spurs to be Brent Barry. The bench player erupted for 23 points on Tuesday and he certainly could help this total to get there tonight. Even with good production from the Spurs tonight the problem for San Antonio will be stopping the Lakers and that is why the play here is the over. The Lakers have averaged over 111 points per game at home in these playoffs. Even against one of the top defensive teams in the league, the Lakers managed to put up 101 points on the Spurs in Game Two in Los Angeles. Tonight, the Spurs will do everything they can to stay alive. That means we will see a lot of fouls from the Spurs if necessary to stay alive late in this game. As a result, this could be one of those games where the final few minutes play out over a span of about a half hour as the teams continue to battle (the Lakers trying to put the Spurs away and San Antonio trying to find a way to send this series back home). The Spurs made some lineup adjustments when the series shifted back to San Antonio and those seemed to pay immediate dividends as the Spurs rolled in Game Three. Even though they fell just short in Game Four, the Spurs offense (ball movement, etc.) seems to be awakening. Also, the Lakers offense seems a step ahead of the Spurs and this led to a lot of second chance points for the Lakers on Tuesday. Los Angeles was hungry and quick and the Spurs will look to answer that intensity tonight. Kobe Bryant is also highly unlikely to go without attempting a free throw (like he did in Game Four). Lastly, the teams combined to make just 10 of 38 from three point land on Tuesday and yet the game only fell short of going over by single digits. With simply more normal three point shooting this game will easily get over the total!