Nick Parsons Available Picks

June, 05 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 192 (-110)
LOSS for -2 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Play OVER the total in Boston vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:05 PM ET Thursday – This one is all about the match-ups. Of course, the odds maker knows that too and that’s why he installed a total of 195 on this game and yet, as of Monday morning, the total has dropped all the way down to a 192 in most books! This is giving bettors even more value with the over in Game One and there is plenty of reasoning behind why the over is the way to go on Thursday night! Pau Gasol has proven to be an excellent fit for the Lakers and their triangle offense. He’s a  fantastic passer for a big man and he has shot the ball very well in the postseason while averaging 18 points per game. Kendrick Perkins of the Celtics will not be able to stop him. However, Perkins should also enjoy success on the other end of the floor as he came up big in the Eastern Conference Finals with a number of big games and he’s shooting 62% from the floor in the playoffs! Kevin Garnett was the Defensive Player of the Year but it was his offense that really shined in Boston’s series victory over Detroit as he averaged nearly 23 points per game. He’ll continue to score well in this series but note that Lamar Odom bounced back from a poor Game Three against the Spurs by coming up with some big games late in that series. That gives Odom plenty of confidence on the offensive end as he now faces Garnett and Boston. Paul Pierce has had some very big games for the Celtics in the playoffs and if the Lakers try to put Vladimir Radmanovic on him it’s not going to work. Pierce should score well in this game but note that Radmanovic is a strong perimeter shooter that can help soften up the Celtics defense. Ray Allen is heating up for the Celtics and that also helps the odds of an over in Game One. Allen was scoring well late in the Detroit series and he made 8 of his last 14 from three point range. The Lakers Kobe Bryant is also sure to “get his” during this postseason as he’s the leading scorer in the playoffs and he’s also shooting 51% from the field! The point guard match-up of Boston’s Rajon Rondo and LA’s Derek Fisher may not scream of offense but they both play a key role in making their team’s respective offenses flow. Rondo is a streaky shooter from the outside while the veteran Fisher is not afraid to take (and make!) big shots from the outside. The bench is another key in this match-up because the Lakers reserves should hold an edge over the Celtics reserves and this helps an over out. That’s because if it’s the bench of Los Angeles that dictates the tempo, we’re likely to see a fast pace when the starters are getting a break. That’s how the Lakers bench likes to play…up tempo and with a lot of energy minutes! With some real offensive stars matched up in this one and a quick pace expected in Game One, the OVER is the way to go here!