Nick Parsons Available Picks

May, 14 2008 8:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 176.5 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

UNDER the total in Boston vs Cleveland @ 8:05 PM ET Other than Game Three, no game in this series has gone over 165 points. In fact, other than Game Three, the average points scored in this series is a measly 158.3 per game! Thats an average thats about 18 points per game less than what the odds maker is calling for here in Game Five. Could tonights game be an aberration though and possibly play out like Game Three? Thats extremely doubtful. The key to Game Threes high score was that, even though LeBron James had a poor game for Cleveland, the rest of the team shot lights out for the Cavs. That is not likely at all to happen in Boston. In fact, the Cavaliers managed just 72.5 points per game in the first two games of this series which, of course, were played in Boston. The difference between the Celtics defense on the road versus at home, in these playoffs, has been like the difference between night and day! Boston has allowed nearly 100 points per game on the road while theyve only allowed 75.5 points per game at home! Of course this difference in the tenacity and effectiveness of the Celtics at home compared to on the road is not being reflected in this line. As a result, there is significant line value available here with the under in Boston in Game Five. Also, helping in the under category for this game is that, even though the Celtics are at home tonight, they arent without some issues in terms of their own scoring abilities. Ray Allen has made only 21 of 60 three pointers in the playoffs. In this series alone, hes struggled from the field by making just 12 of his 36 shots from the field. Also note that Sam Cassell, a reserve guard the Celtics like to get offense from off the bench, has made only 8 of his 31 shots from the field. Paul Pierce is averaging just 16 points per game in the postseason after averaging 19.6 points per game in the regular season! As for the Cavaliers, its been feast or famine on the road in these playoffs. The Cavs are 2-3 on the road in the postseason but theyve lost both games at Boston. Also, in their three losses away from home in the postseason theyve scored 73 points or less in each game. Facing a Boston team that is 41-6 at home (including the regular season) means that its certainly likely to be famine and not feast for the Cavaliers on the road tonight. Thats why the UNDER is clearly the play here and there is so much line value on this over/under selection that it easily earns the title of Eastern Conference Total of the Year.