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May, 11 2008 8:05pm EST
MONEYLINE: Minnesota Twins +105
WIN for +2.1 unit(s)

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins

Play ON Minnesota Twins $ line (+) vs Boston @ 8:05 PM ET The Red Sox send knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the mound tonight and hes enjoyed a lot of success against Minnesota in his career and this includes his starts at the Metrodome. Knuckleballers have the movement of their pitches impacted quite a bit by weather conditions and this is a big part of the reason that Wakefield has enjoyed a lot of success indoors in his career as of course its a climate-controlled environment. However, true to our contrarian form, we often will look to fade a statistic like this when we find a lot of value going the other way. Note that, prior to last nights win; the Red Sox had lost eight straight games in domes. So, even though pitching indoors may appeal to Wakefield, it certainly hasnt appealed to Boston for much of this season. Another challenge facing Boston here is the injury to shortstop Julio Lugo as he missed Saturdays game after injuring himself in Fridays match-up. The Red Sox, of course, still have some decent sticks in their lineup but they could be shorthanded here and could end up missing Lugos glove as well! Overall, the Red Sox lineup could have their hands full facing Twins starter Nick Blackburn. The 26-year old righthander has been at his best at home. Hes 2-1 at the Metrodome with a 1.66 ERA so far this season. Blackburn took the loss against Boston in his only career appearance against the Red Sox but that was a one inning relief stint. This will be his first ever start against Boston and, as a starter this season, Blackburn has excelled in his home outings. The Twins should give Blackburn some solid support as Minnesota is 7-3 in their last ten games and they had averaged nearly 6.5 runs per game over their last seven games before getting shutdown by Daisuke Matsuzaka last night. Also note that Minnesotas bullpen, based on ERA ranks second in the American League. As for Bostons bullpen, their ERA ranks them as 29th among all 30 MLB teams. As you can see, if this one is tight late its definitely advantage: Twins. However, look for a rather easy win for Minnesota here as the Red Sox revert to their struggles in domes this season while the Twins bounce back. Dont forget that the Twins had won 7 of 9 before last nights loss and they can quickly get back on track here.