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May, 14 2008 3:05pm EST
TOTAL: Under 9 (-110)
PUSH

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

UNDER the total in Baltimore vs Boston @ 3:05 PM ET It should be a fairly mild afternoon with the wind possibly blowing out to left field for this match-up between the Red Sox and the Orioles in Baltimore. However, in terms of anything favoring the over here that is really where it starts and stops! The under is clearly the play here as Daniel Cabrera is off to a stellar start this season and he has already erased the memories of struggles hes had in past seasons. Thats why, even though his career numbers against the Red Sox are not good, its his current form that carries the most importance! Cabrera has simply been stellar this season. The Orioles righthander is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA and Baltimore has won six of the last seven games hes started (one game ended up suspended). Cabrera has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts and we look for more of the same from him this afternoon. Note that despite poor career numbers against the Red Sox, Cabrera has pitched well against a couple of Bostons bigger sticks. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have never homered against Cabrera and hes held them to just 6 hits in 27 career at-bats! Red Sox manager Terry Francona is not with the team as he had to take a leave of absence because his mother-in-law passed away. Also, Bostons J.D. Drew sprained his left wrist diving for a ball yesterday and Coco Crisp left last nights game with an upset stomach. In other words, there certainly could be a few holes in the Red Sox lineup this afternoon. The Red Sox arent the only team in this match-up that is dealing with injuries. The Orioles were without Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez in yesterdays game. Both Mora (shoulder) and Hernandez (wrist) could be out again today. This will further weaken an Orioles lineup that has not fared well against Jon Lester. The Red Sox southpaw has won all three starts against Baltimore and hes accumulated a 3.00 ERA in those outings. Lester is coming off of a rare, rough outing in his most recent start. However, one can certainly look for him to bounce back here. Lester helped defeat the Orioles 4-0 at Camden Yards last September as he allowed just four hits in seven innings. The Red Sox southpaw is coming off of a poor start, as noted above. However, prior to this rare subpar outing, Lester was rock solid in his two prior outings. The lefty allowed just one earned run on five hits while striking out 11 in 14 innings of work. It is that type of dominance that can be expected again this afternoon. Note that Baltimore has only averaged 3.4 runs per game in their last sixteen games! Also note that Lester is 4-0 in daytime outings in his career with a solid 3.83 ERA. With how well 69 righthander Cabrera is throwing, you can see why an UNDER can be expected here and also why this one earns Total of the Month status!