Nick Parsons Available Picks

May, 05 2008 8:00pm EST
ATS: Tampa Bay Storm +5.5 (-110)
WIN for +1.82 unit(s)

Chicago Rush at Tampa Bay Storm

Play ON Tampa Bay Storm (+) vs Chicago @ 8 PM ET The Storm could be up to their old tricks again. After starting this season 2-0, Tampa Bay proceeded to lose five straight games. However, they got a key win last week to improve their full season record to 3-5 and this is significant as it reminds us of the runs that the Storm have produced in two of the last three seasons. In 2005, Tampa Bay won six of their last eight games to squeak into the postseason. In 2007, the Storm began the season 1-6 but they then won 8 of their last 9 games to get into the playoffs. Just as in those seasons, Tampa Bay is indeed a much better team than their early season record indicates. What also is interesting to note about tonights match-up is that the National Conference does appear to be stronger than the American Conference. That said, even though the Rush are 7-2 (and the class of the American Conference) how much better are they compared to the 3-5 Storm whom play in the tough National Conference? We think there is not too much disparity between these clubs and the opportunity for Tampa Bay to play on Monday night in a nationally televised game on ESPN2 will open up the doors to a big effort from this home dog. Brett Dietz is a very solid quarterback for Tampa Bay and he just recently got back a key weapon in the form of WR Terrill Shaw. Tonight will be Shaws third game since coming back and he combines with Hank Edwards and Lawrence Samuels to give Dietz a very solid trio of weapons! On the other side of the ball, the Storm defense really stepped up in last weeks win and Tampa Bays secondary of Jeroid Johnson, Tracho Rachal, and Rayshun Reed combine to give the Storm some solid talent in the defensive backfield. Up front we expect a huge game from nose tackle Tim McGill for the Storm. Hes one of the best nose tackles in the game and hell be matched up with a rookie center for the Rush. Chicago has a rookie, Beau Elliot, at the center position. Hell have his hands full to say the least. One final note here about the value of this home dog is the simple fact that the points being offered are certainly not insignificant. After getting off to a dominating start earlier this season, the recent Rush victories have all come by much tighter margins. Chicagos average win margin has been 5.5 points per victory in their last three wins. Another tough spot for the Rush here and they arent likely to cover this IF theyre even able to get the win. We smell an upset here!