Mr East Available Picks

February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New England Patriots -3 (100)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

New York Giants at New England Patriots

NFL games typically aren't decided by stats hot or cold team, they are deided by turnovers, so to me the best thing to do is look at teams in turnover situations this year. While in and of itself, it does not predict anything, but what it can do is give you a glimpse of how teams have performed under given turnover situations, and New England is in a favorable turnover position.

Anyone can win a game and is expected to if they are plus in turnovers.

NEW ENGLAND IN GAMES PLUS IN TURNOVERS: 10-1

NY GIANTS 9-1

certainly nothing surprising about those numbers

NEW ENGLAND IN GAMES WHERE THEY WERE NEGATIVE IN TURNOVERS: 4-2 outscoring opponents by 7.3ppg!

NY GIANTS 0-5 outscored by 11.8ppg!

Basically there is no certainty to anything, the Giants have not won a game all season where they were negative in turnovers, does that mean they can't win one if they are? Of course not, but this is about most likely vs least likely. The Pats are 2-0 at -1 and 2-2 at -2 even at -2 they lost by 3 and 4 points, while the Giants have gotten murdered.

The Giants have indeed played better, but have they? They were +2 vs San Francisco and needed OT to win, they were +3 against GB and won easily, but wouldn't have if GB didn't drop 2 TD passes and 9 passes overall.

The Pats many seem to think got lucky vs Baltimore, and in fact they did. However they were -2 in turnovers and still beat a very good team.

In the end what this says to me, is it is very unlikely the Giants can win or cover this game if they are -1 in turnovers, while the Pats have not lost this year at -1 and have won twice at -2 in 4 tries.

So this is like a 3 to make 2 for me. I think this is a 50-50 game at even turnovers, I think the Pats at -1 or -2 still can win, but the Giants at -1 or more are really gonna be on life support.

Noone knows how the turnover will effect the game, but in one way or the other there is considerably more margin for error for NE which to me belies the line posted

I think there are a lot of similarities from their last SB season for the Giants but this is 1 huge glaring difference.

The year they upset NE that team had much more margin for error. They were negative in turnovers 9 times and won 4 of the 9! They even won at -4 and -2, this year no turnover margin no win. This team is much more fragile.

PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND
 

PROP BET:

The highest prop bet I could find has to do with the first punt off the foot of Steve Weatherford of the Giants. These are staggeringly great odds, and here is what to do.

All Weatherford punts this season have seen 50.4% go for 48 yards or more so half the time he is in this range.

prop bet offered is:

First punt  48-55 yds   +413

First punt   >55    yds   +443

Simply bet each for 100.00  and that leaves you at better than 2 to 1 odds on a 50-50 bet!  it doesn't get much better than that

Mr East NFL Football Past Picks

NFL Football

New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
NFL games typically aren't decided by stats hot or cold team, they are deided by turnovers, so to me the best thing to do is look at teams in turnover situations this year. While in and of itself, it does not predict anything, but what it can do is give you a glimpse of how teams ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

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New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
The San Francisco 49ers have been the most consistent team in the NFL all season. They have run the table at home this season and are 8-0-1 ATS so this team as good as their season has been, is still under the radar. despite finishing 13-3, they have been posted as the underdog in ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

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New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
The San Francisco 49ers have been all about defense this season. Alex Smith has had a breakout season but despite of that the Niners finished ranked just 26th in the league on offense. The Giants defense was pounded for an average of over 40ppg in a 3 week period by some good offenses, ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
The Baltimore Ravens are considered a big defensive team in the NFL.I ould agree to that in their past, but the numbers are very misleading this season. The Ravens faced the following offenses this season:#32    Jacksonville#31    St. Louis#30   ... read more

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Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
The Baltimore Ravens are considered a big defensive team in the NFL.I ould agree to that in their past, but the numbers are very misleading this season. The Ravens faced the following offenses this season:#32 Jacksonville#31 St. Louis#30 Indianapolis#29 Cleveland#29 Cleveland#28 ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

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New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 pm
The Green Bay Packers have been lethal behind the accurate throws of Aaron Rodgers and a cast of talented recievers. The problem is their defense ranks last in the league. The packers have played 3 home games s teams in the playoffs this season and the points scored in those 3 games ... read more

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NFL Football

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 pm
 The Tim Tebow show heads to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. It is unthinkable that Denver even made the playoffs, let alone beat the Steelers as a huge dog. Huge dogs have one remarkably well against the inept Patriot defense, and as a 12.5 or greater favorite New England ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

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New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
 The New Orleans Saints have taken on an air of invincibility. This is a team that has scored 40 points in each of their last 4 games, has won 9 in a row and has covered all 9 games. Drew Brees has had an exceptional season, one that will go into the record books. I won`t try ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
The New Orleans Saints have been a scoring machine as they have scored 42 or more points in each of their last 4 games. All of those were vs weask defenses, and all of them were on turf. Their scoring at home this year was off the charts at 41.ppg but they scored 2 TD`s less on the ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East

NFL Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
The Pittsburgh Steelers come to Denver as a banged up team. When asked about his ankle, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger said it was about a 5 on a scale of 1-10 and he simply hasn't been as effective since the injury. Complicating matters will be starting center Maurkice Pouncey ... read more

Mr East Bio and Picks | Articles By Mr East