Football Prediction Matt Fargo Sports January 22, 2012 New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

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January, 22 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New York Giants +2.5 (100)
WIN for +5 unit(s)

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

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Many will argue that the Packers lost last week as opposed to the Giants winning and while that is true to some degree, it is more than that. Green Bay hurt itself with turnovers and dropped passes but the New York defense had a lot to do with that. The Giants allowed 388 total yards, the seventh lowest offensive output from Green Bay this season and that defense is playing the best it has all season. They are as healthy as they have been and much healthier than in the first meeting with San Francisco.

Looking at that first meeting, the Giants lost by a touchdown as their potential game-tying drive was stopped at the 49ers 10-yard line on fourth down with 34 seconds remaining. New York was inside the San Francisco redzone four times and came away with only 13 points as they were forced into field goals of 23 and 25 yards to start the game. Overall, the Giants outgained the 49ers by 90 yards and some will point to garbage yards after the 49ers went up by 14 points but that is far from the case.

After the 49ers took the lead early in the fourth quarter, the Giants ran only two plays before Manning was intercepted and San Francisco scored another touchdown just one play later. Turnovers were the difference right there so for the Giants to win this game, they must limit and even cut out the miscues. It is easier said than done as the 49ers lead the league in turnover margin but the Giants have taken very good care of the ball with only two turnovers their last four games including just one in the playoffs.

The 49ers impressively defeated New Orleans on a late touchdown with just nine seconds left. They once again did it with turnovers as they forced five which was the difference as San Francisco was outgained by 65 total yards and allowed 472 yards, the most since Week Four against the Eagles. While it may be considered an aberration, the 49ers have struggled against potent offenses and the Giants are in that category as they are playing at a very high level. New York gained 395 yards on offense in that first meeting.

The revenge angle has not fared well in the playoffs as the teams that lost the first meeting have gone 1-4 in the playoffs. That one win though came from the Giants as they avenged their earlier loss against the Packers. Despite the 1-2 ATS mark in the playoffs, this is a very good angle as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a same season loss against opponent. This situation is 30-11 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (303) New York Giants