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Fargo's **10** NBA ENFORCER (SWEET 17-10 NBA RUN) (Sat 8:35PM)
Matt has been simply killing it in the NBA for years and now he is on an AWESOME 17-10-1 NBA run and his...more

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Fargo's **10** C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR (61% CBB) (Sat 8:00PM)
Matt is a BLAZING 74-47-5 ATS (61.2%) L126 CBB and the streak continues on Saturday! He has gone an AWESOME 8-2 on 10* Plays the...more

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January, 17 2010 4:40pm EST
ATS: New York Jets +8 (-125)
WIN for +4 unit(s)

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

**9** NFL SUNDAY STAR ATTRACTION **LATE** I went against the Jets last weekend against the Bengals for two reasons. I thought there was excellent value on the Bengals based on the shellacking they took in New York in Week 17 as well as the fact the Jets were sending a rookie quarterback on the road for his first ever playoff start. A lot of credit goes out to Mark Sanchez for that game. Even though he did not put up great numbers, he managed the game like he was supposed to do, did not commit any mistakes and played extremely efficient. It helps having a strong running game behind him and there is no reason to think that is going to change here against the Chargers. News York is ranked first in the NFL in rushing offense while its 4.5 ypc is ranked fifth best. The Chargers meanwhile are ranked 20th in rushing defense and its 4.5 ypc allowed is tied for 24th. New York played seven games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in rushing defense and it went 3-4 in those games. It played eight games against teams ranked 22nd or worst in rushing defense (where San Diego is) and it went 5-3 in those games. One loss came against New Orleans because of turnovers, another came against Buffalo in windy conditions and the third came in New England in a big revenge game. The Jets have outrushing their last seven opponents and they are 6-1 in those games. A few weeks ago I was asked who would be most likely to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and the answer was San Diego. While the Chargers are the hottest team in the conference, I am no longer sure they have what it takes to get it done. Two key ingredients to winning in the NFL playoffs are a good running game and a good defense. San Diego does have either of those while the Jets do. Quarterback Philip Rivers has had a sensational season and he has single handedly carried the Chargers to a lot of the success they have had. But if he gets taken out of his passing game, there is not much to fall back on. San Diego is second to last in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging just 88.9 ypg while its 3.3 ypc is dead last in the league. Obviously it has not hurt so far considering the Chargers have won 11 straight games however San Diego has been fortunate to have played a very soft schedule this season as it is ranked 27th in the NFL. They have played seven games this season against teams ranked 26th or worst in rushing defense and they went 6-1 in those games, losing only to Denver by a point. Conversely, they played five games against teams ranked in the top ten in rushing dense and they went only 3-2 in those games with two wins coming by just a field goal and the other by eight points. This cannot be discounted and facing the eighth ranked Jets rushing defense is going to pose another challenge. This line you will notice is +7.5 in some places and +9 in others and the difference is because of teaser protection on the Chargers. The linesmakers know that games ending with a final score deficit of eight or nine are rare so pushing the number up to nine does not hurt as it can only save them on teasers. However, the bigger the better so shop around still. 9* New York Jets

Matt Fargo Sports NFL Football Past Picks

NFL Football

New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
The Giants are coming off their second straight playoff game where they were outgained but still pulled off the win as turnovers once again played a big role. It was unfortunate the way the 49ers season ended but you still have to give credit to the Giants as the defensive intensity ... read more

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NFL Football

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
Many will argue that the Packers lost last week as opposed to the Giants winning and while that is true to some degree, it is more than that. Green Bay hurt itself with turnovers and dropped passes but the New York defense had a lot to do with that. The Giants allowed 388 total yards, ... read more

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NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
We got the line we wanted and we will get this one out there early as we are over a key number. Baltimore did not look very good in winning over Houston as it was outgained although it did have chances to cover the number as a missed opportunity at the goalline proved to be the difference. ... read more

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NFL Football

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 pm
We saw the Giants take out the Falcons rather easily in the first round on Sunday and they are playing their best football of the season. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball. New York did not allow Atlanta's offense to score as the two points came on a safety ... read more

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NFL Football

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
We won with Houston last week against the Bengals and while it was a dominating performance on the scoreboard, it was not so much on the field as the Texans outgained Cincinnati by only 40 total yards. It was the fourth straight game for Houston where the yardage differentials were ... read more

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NFL Football

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 pm
The one big fear of playing Denver here is the letdown factor. The Broncos won as huge underdogs last week and now have to travel east less than a week later so the situation is far from ideal but that is negated by the matchup. This is the second meeting between the Broncos and ... read more

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NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
New Orleans has won and covered nine straight games since losing in St. Louis which came right after winning that lopsided home game against the Colts. The fact that the Saints are road favorites here is no surprise at all and I actually think they should be favored by more. Taking ... read more

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NFL Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
I understand that the playoffs are different than the regular season as experience plays a big part in that. In this case Pittsburgh has it while Denver does not. But this point spread is out of control. Very rarely will you see a team favored on the road by this much in the playoffs ... read more

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NFL Football

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Sunday January 8, 2012 1:00 pm
Just when you thought the Giants season was unraveling once again, they came through with two big wins at the end of the season to capture the NFC East and make it into the playoffs. Even though it is only two games, they are playing at a high level and last week against the Cowboys, ... read more

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NFL Football

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 7, 2012 8:00 pm
This is a contrarian value play to the max. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Detroit and New Orleans and why not since these are two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The linesmakers are adjusting for the influx of over money as this total has now reached 59 and by ... read more

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