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January, 08 2012 1:00pm EST
ATS: New York Giants -3 (-105)
WIN for +4.76 unit(s)

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Just when you thought the Giants season was unraveling once again, they came through with two big wins at the end of the season to capture the NFC East and make it into the playoffs. Even though it is only two games, they are playing at a high level and last week against the Cowboys, they outgained Dallas by 137 total yards as Eli Manning outdueled Tony Romo and the rushing game was clearly in their favor. We give them a big edge playing in this stadium for the fourth straight week.

Atlanta had a disappointing season as it finished 10-6 after going 13-3 a season ago. The Falcons defeated only one team that is currently in the playoffs, Detroit, and went 1-4 overall against current playoff teams. They finished .500 on the road this season which isn't horrible but losses against Tampa Bay and Chicago were not good while wins against Seattle and Carolina were closer than what should have been. The biggest road win was against the Colts which is not saying much.

The Giants rushing offense has been abysmal all season as they are dead last in the league but things have been moving in the right direction. They have surpassed 100 yards in four of their last five games after doing so just four times in their first 11 games. A healthy Ahmad Bradshaw has been the difference. Even though he has not been gaining many yards, he has given Brandon Jacobs a break who has been able to be more effective with fewer carries and a great ypc average.

The Falcons rushing defense has been the exact opposite. They fared well early on but they have gotten worse as they have allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for over 100 yards, allowing an average of 126.8 ypg. That is not a good trend heading into the playoffs and neither is the passing defense that has been torched in three of its last four games. Atlanta is 20th in the league in passing defense and it will square off against one of the most potent passing offenses in the league.

Atlanta has gone over 375 yards of offense in each of its last two games and that is an important number as the Falcons are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while the Giants are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams averaging 375 or more ypg. The Giants fall into a great situation as we play on home teams coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) New York Giants

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Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
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Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 pm
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New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
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Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Sunday January 8, 2012 1:00 pm
Just when you thought the Giants season was unraveling once again, they came through with two big wins at the end of the season to capture the NFC East and make it into the playoffs. Even though it is only two games, they are playing at a high level and last week against the Cowboys, ... read more

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This is a contrarian value play to the max. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Detroit and New Orleans and why not since these are two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The linesmakers are adjusting for the influx of over money as this total has now reached 59 and by ... read more

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