Nfl Free Pick Matt Fargo Sports January 24, 2010 Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

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January, 24 2010 6:40pm EST
ATS: New Orleans Saints -3 (-135)
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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

(ATS: New Orleans Saints -3 (-135))

Photo_nfl I have been struggling with this line this week. There is not much of a difference between these two teams as both possess potent offenses and solid defenses so if anything, we should expect a close game. Therefore anything over a field goal is worth a look and currently, most books as of Thursday afternoon have this line over that key number of three. The Vikings look inviting because of that and I think the public is seeing the same as the early money has come in on the road team and brought this number down from an opening of -4 and even -4.5 in some places. Also, considering that a top seed from the NFC has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1999 may be taking some people off of New Orleans and putting them on the Vikings. I think that is a meaningless trend. That being said and looking more into the on-the-field matchups, the Saints are the call here. We cashed an easy ticket with the Vikings last week as they dominated Dallas. Or did they? They outgained the Cowboys by 75 total yards but 37 of those yards came on that controversial last touchdown drive so the yardage disparity was not that big. The Cowboys could not move the ball after left tackle Flozell Adams left the game and he was a huge loss. Dallas gained 108 yards in the first quarter compared to 110 yards in the final three quarters combined (not counting sack yards) after he left. It is hard to say one player on the line can make a big difference like that but the Vikings pressured Tony Romo to no end after that and that resulted in turnovers and sacks galore. Can Minnesota get the same pressure on New Orleans? It is definitely possible as the defensive line is solid but the Saints allowed only 20 sacks all season long and Drew Brees has the ability to pick apart any defense. The Cardinals were unable to get to Brees last week after getting constant pressure on Aaron Rodgers the previous week, sacking him five times. I do like the under in this game and part of that reason obviously is the Vikings defense as it is a great unit. However, while it may slow down the Saints, I don’t think they can stop them enough. The real edge goes to the Saints defense which is underrated and unjustified for a few good reasons. New Orleans held the Cardinals to next to nothing and that defense, which played so good early on and was scrutinized late in the season, looks like it is back at full force. The injury situation played havoc on the Saints and there were a lot of key players missing time but those players are healthy once again. The biggest surprise in my opinion is the fact that not one player from the defense made the Pro Bowl and they are taking that personal. Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is one of the best in football. He missed five games this season, not counting the season finale for rest, and the difference was huge. In those five games, the defense allowed 748 yards rushing on 151 attempts (4.95 ypc) for an average of 149.6 ypg. In the 11 games he played, they allowed 1,136 yards on 261 attempts (4.35 ypc) for an average of just 103.3 ypg. You do the match. Add to the fact that Adrian Peterson has not rushed for more than 100 yards since Week 10 and the Saints have a big edge. In the secondary, Jabari Greer is a great corner who also missed time and he will be able to shut down Sidney Rice. The Saints are 6-0 ATS under head coach Sean Peyton when facing an offense that averages 27 or more ppg while road teams in the Championship game are 0-4 ATS the last four when winning by 30 or more points (last being Atlanta in 2005). <b>10* New Orleans Saints</b>

January, 24 2010 6:40pm EST
TOTAL: Under 53.5 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

TOTAL: Under 53.5 (-110)

We are getting excellent value in this total. Last week, the Saints/Cardinals had a total of 57 and this week the number is at 53 as of Tuesday morning. That is a difference of just four points which is a small decrease considering we are seeing the Vikings sixth ranked defense compared to the Cardinals 20th ranked defense last week. Minnesota’s offense is better than that of Arizona but not by much and certainly not toward the end of the season when Arizona was clicking on all cylinders. The Cardinals were unable to stop the Saints offense as New Orleans put up 45 points but it did mange just 418 total yards which is just a little above what the Saints average during the regular season. I believe the Vikings have an excellent chance of slowing down that offense. Minnesota had the sixth ranked total defense in the NFL last season while allowing 20.8 ppg which was 13th. For some reason, the Vikings stop unit has caught a lot of flack this season for nothing being as strong yet the defense once again finished sixth overall and the scoring defense actually improved, allowing 19.5 ppg which was 10th in the league. The rushing defense dropped from first to second which is nothing. The Vikings completely stopped the Cowboys whose offense is certainly a strong one. Dallas was limited to only three points and just 248 total yards. The Vikings were able to get to quarterback Tony Romo all day long as they recorded six sacks, five from the defensive line. The Saints are similar in that they do not max-protect very often on passing plays and even though Drew Brees was sacked only 20 times, Minnesota once again will have a good shot at simply overpowering that offensive line. New Orleans held the Cardinals to next to nothing as well and that defense, which played so good early on and was scrutinized late in the season, looks like it is back at full force. The injury situation played havoc on the Saints and there were a lot of key players missing time but those players are healthy once again. These two defenses combined have allowed a total of only 39.4 ppg through the 17 games played and while the offenses are obviously much better, the defenses will be the story again. Neither team will want to get into a shootout and I expect Minnesota to establish a strong running game. The Vikings had trouble running against the Cowboys but the New Orleans rushing defense is much weaker as it allowed 4.5 ypc which was tied for 24th in the league. Doing this will keep the Saints offense off the field as much as possible. Minnesota is 9-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last 10 games coming off a double-digit home win while New Orleans is 7-0 to the ‘Under’ in its last seven games after allowing more than 6.0 yppl in its last game. Also, the ‘Under’ is 21-5 in the Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 3* Under Minnesota Vikings/New Orleans Saints.