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January, 07 2012 8:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 59.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

This is a contrarian value play to the max. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Detroit and New Orleans and why not since these are two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The linesmakers are adjusting for the influx of over money as this total has now reached 59 and by gametime, a total of 60 or even more would not be surprising. Already it is the highest NFL Playoff total in the history of the playoffs, breaking the closing total of 57 set by Arizona and New Orleans in a 2009 divisional round game.

This is a perfect example of a total losing its value, or in this case, never having any. With a number this high, you would need an average of 15 points per quarter to hit the over and while certainly possible, everything needs to go the right way. All it takes is a couple long, sustained drives or a turnover in the opposing side of the field to kill it. The offenses are capable but in the playoffs,  referees tend to be a little more lenient with the defense and allow some of the ticky-tack penalties that they would normally call.

Both New Orleans and Detroit have had their share of high totals this season with the Lions having three games with a total of 50 or higher and the Saints having eight games with a total of 50 or higher. New Orleans saw six of those eight games go over although only five would have gone over the total for Saturday. Meanwhile Detroit saw all three of its games go under with finishing scores totaling 42, 48 and 48 points, none of which would even be close to this weeks number.

Last week's results are also playing into this total as Detroit is coming off a shootout with Green Bay where 86 points were scored while the Saints are coming off a game against the Panthers where 62 points were scored. New Orleans has actually gone over the total in three straight games as the offense scored in the 40's in all three of those games and that favors us even more. The Saints have gone under in 14 of their last 18 games after scoring 25 or more points in three straight, with those 18 games averaging 44.7 ppg.

With all of the talk about the offenses, I think the defenses will have something to say and step up here. Combined they are allowing an average of 45.4 ppg and on turf where you would think it would be higher, it actually drops to 41.1 ppg. Both teams have allowed a lot of yards and are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in total defense however adjusted defense takes out garbage drives and puts more weight on recent games and the units increase huge as the Saints jump to fourth and the Lions to 17th. 8* Under (103) Detroit Lions/(104) New Orleans Saints

Matt Fargo Sports NFL Football Past Picks

NFL Football

New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
The Giants are coming off their second straight playoff game where they were outgained but still pulled off the win as turnovers once again played a big role. It was unfortunate the way the 49ers season ended but you still have to give credit to the Giants as the defensive intensity ... read more

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New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
Many will argue that the Packers lost last week as opposed to the Giants winning and while that is true to some degree, it is more than that. Green Bay hurt itself with turnovers and dropped passes but the New York defense had a lot to do with that. The Giants allowed 388 total yards, ... read more

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Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
We got the line we wanted and we will get this one out there early as we are over a key number. Baltimore did not look very good in winning over Houston as it was outgained although it did have chances to cover the number as a missed opportunity at the goalline proved to be the difference. ... read more

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New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 pm
We saw the Giants take out the Falcons rather easily in the first round on Sunday and they are playing their best football of the season. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball. New York did not allow Atlanta's offense to score as the two points came on a safety ... read more

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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
We won with Houston last week against the Bengals and while it was a dominating performance on the scoreboard, it was not so much on the field as the Texans outgained Cincinnati by only 40 total yards. It was the fourth straight game for Houston where the yardage differentials were ... read more

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Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 pm
The one big fear of playing Denver here is the letdown factor. The Broncos won as huge underdogs last week and now have to travel east less than a week later so the situation is far from ideal but that is negated by the matchup. This is the second meeting between the Broncos and ... read more

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New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
New Orleans has won and covered nine straight games since losing in St. Louis which came right after winning that lopsided home game against the Colts. The fact that the Saints are road favorites here is no surprise at all and I actually think they should be favored by more. Taking ... read more

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NFL Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
I understand that the playoffs are different than the regular season as experience plays a big part in that. In this case Pittsburgh has it while Denver does not. But this point spread is out of control. Very rarely will you see a team favored on the road by this much in the playoffs ... read more

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NFL Football

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Sunday January 8, 2012 1:00 pm
Just when you thought the Giants season was unraveling once again, they came through with two big wins at the end of the season to capture the NFC East and make it into the playoffs. Even though it is only two games, they are playing at a high level and last week against the Cowboys, ... read more

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NFL Football

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 7, 2012 8:00 pm
This is a contrarian value play to the max. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Detroit and New Orleans and why not since these are two of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The linesmakers are adjusting for the influx of over money as this total has now reached 59 and by ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports