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January, 14 2012 8:00pm EST
ATS: Denver Broncos +13.5 (100)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

The one big fear of playing Denver here is the letdown factor. The Broncos won as huge underdogs last week and now have to travel east less than a week later so the situation is far from ideal but that is negated by the matchup. This is the second meeting between the Broncos and the Patriots and while the score showed an 18-point New England victory but it was actually closer than that. Turnovers for Denver were the difference as it lost that battle 3-0 and that led to 13 New England points.

So while New England won so big in that first meeting, the line opened big but I think it is still too much. The Patriots are one the most overrated top seeds that we have seen in the playoffs in a long time. They still possess one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL but it is hard to back a team with a defense that was as bad as New England was this season. The Patriots had trouble stopping bad teams as they faced a very easy schedule and they defeated only one team that made the playoffs, coincidentally Denver.

New England lost to Buffalo because of turnovers but it lost to the Giants and Steelers because it was unable to win the physical battle on the line of scrimmage and Denver has the team that can cause the same issues as long as they can avoid turnovers this time around. It is no secret that the Broncos will try and keep the New England offense off the field by running the ball and they should have success as the Patriots allowed 4.6 ypc and in that first meeting, Denver rushed for 252 yards on 31 carries (8.2 ypc).

That rushing total allowed has to be alarming if you are a new England fan. It was part of a horrible end to the season as they gave up 162.3 ypg over the last four games and despite having the edge of this being the second look at Denver, the defense may not even be good enough to make the proper adjustments. Denver did not allow a single sack against the Steelers so keeping Tin Tebow in the pocket backfired as not only did he not go down, he threw for 316 yards.

Stopping the Patriots will be a challenge for the Broncos defense but they won't have to do that as slowing down New England could very well be enough as something says the Denver offense will have enough success to keep it close. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road teams that are revenging a loss by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-10 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) Denver Broncos

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