Matt Fargo Sports Available Picks

January, 24 2010 3:00pm EST
ATS: New York Jets +8 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

I liked the Jets last week and I like them even more this week. I believed they had a realistic shot to beat the Chargers outright and that obviously was the case and the same goes for Sunday against the Colts. New York has already gone into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts once this season so who is to say it cannot do it again? Of course we will get the argument that Indianapolis sat its starters in the third quarter which allowed the Jets to come back and win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course that helped but we cannot forget that the Jets were only down by five points at that point and they were playing good enough to pull off the upset anyway. We cannot use that game as a comparison but we can certainly use last week when New York completely took the Chargers offense out of their game. Philip Rivers threw for 283 yards but he threw two interceptions, only the fourth time that had happened all season long. This Jets defense is getting the respect it deserves as they have allowed 15 points or fewer in eight straight games, giving up an average of only 9.4 ppg over that stretch. Overall this season they have allowed 17 points or less in 13 of 18 games. The Colts came away with a 17-point victory against Baltimore but it was another bad game in my opinion. It may have been related to rust as the starters played for the first time in three weeks but that are issues going on. The Indianapolis offense, while still potent with Peyton Manning under center, does not look like that same wide-open, quick strike unit that we have seen in the past. It is more of a short passing attack and the fact that the Colts cannot run the ball only makes matter worse for them. What we have here is the NFL&#8217;s 30th ranked rushing offense going up against the league 4th ranked rushing defense as far as yards per carry. I will take that matchup any day of the week. We saw it last week as the Chargers, who finished the regular season ranked last in the NFL in ypc on offense, rush for only 61 yards on 18 carries (3.4 ypc). On the other side, Mark Sanchez was average once again but he is doing enough, and not making many mistakes, to win. He has the NFL&#8217;s top ranked rushing offense at his disposal as the Jets racked up 169 yards on 39 carries (4.3 ypc) last week which was far from spectacular but certainly good enough. San Diego finished the regular season ranked 20th in rushing defense and the Colts finished 24th so New York can go with the same plan once again. The Colts held the Ravens to three points but the Baltimore offense was not as bad as that indicates. The Ravens rushed for 4.6 ypc and while the passing game was hardly potent, a lot of that had to with Baltimore running only 54 plays from scrimmage compared to 69 for the Colts. Baltimore shot itself in the foot too many times with penalties and turnovers. Over the last eight games, the Jets have won the yardage battle seven times while over the 10 games, the Colts have won the yardage battle only twice. Those are good odds. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. <b>10* New York Jets</b>

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NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday February 7, 2010 6:25 pm
With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the ... read more

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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Sunday January 24, 2010 6:40 pm
We are getting excellent value in this total. Last week, the Saints/Cardinals had a total of 57 and this week the number is at 53 as of Tuesday morning. That is a difference of just four points which is a small decrease considering we are seeing the Vikings sixth ranked defense compared ... read more

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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Sunday January 24, 2010 6:40 pm
I have been struggling with this line this week. There is not much of a difference between these two teams as both possess potent offenses and solid defenses so if anything, we should expect a close game. Therefore anything over a field goal is worth a look and currently, most books ... read more

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New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday January 24, 2010 3:00 pm
I liked the Jets last week and I like them even more this week. I believed they had a realistic shot to beat the Chargers outright and that obviously was the case and the same goes for Sunday against the Colts. New York has already gone into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts once ... read more

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NFL Football

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers Sunday January 17, 2010 4:40 pm
**9** NFL SUNDAY STAR ATTRACTION **LATE** I went against the Jets last weekend against the Bengals for two reasons. I thought there was excellent value on the Bengals based on the shellacking they took in New York in Week 17 as well as the fact the Jets were sending a rookie quarterback ... read more

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NFL Football

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday January 17, 2010 1:00 pm
**10** PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR *62% RUN* Once Dallas won yet again on Saturday, this game was circled as the spot just is not a good one for the Cowboys. The rating went up based on this line which is shorter than I expected. The Cowboys have been involved in some big games of late ... read more

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NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Saturday January 16, 2010 8:15 pm
**10** NFL SATURDAY “ENFORCER” *83% ANGLE* This is like déjà vu for the Ravens. Last season, Baltimore went to Miami and won rather easily and then went to Tennessee, the number one seed in the AFC, and won outright. It is certainly looking like a similar ... read more

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NFL Football

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 16, 2010 4:30 pm
**9** NFL SATURDAY TOTALS **DOMINATOR** This total opener higher than I thought it would but looking at it further, this is the number that had to come out. We saw all four games in the Wild Card round go ‘Over’ so the totals this week are shaded that way because that ... read more

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NFL Football

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Sunday January 10, 2010 4:40 pm
**10** NFL ENFORCER (SUNDAY) **20-10 L3Y** This is the third meeting this season between the Packers and Cardinals although one of those games took place in the preseason. You might think that these teams would know each other for this reason alone but in fact they really don’t ... read more

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Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 10, 2010 1:00 pm
**9** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *67% POST RUN* Since the start of the 2002 season, the Patriots have played seven playoff games at home and in only one of those, they were favored by less than four points. That game resulted in a win over the Colts in January of 2005 but the point is ... read more

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