Matt Fargo Sports Available Picks

February, 07 2010 6:25pm EST
ATS: New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the game. I have read so many conflicting stories about this line and where it opened. According to the Las Vegas Sun, the Colts opened as a 5.5-point favorite Sunday evening by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the group that sets the betting line. Within one hour, however, the number was bet down to 4.5 points at the Las Vegas Hilton and Station Casinos properties. For what it is worth, the number opened at -3 at offshore sites and was quickly bet up to -4 to -4.5 to -5 to -5.5. Obviously these two do not coincide with each other as each is stating that the sharp money came in to move the lines but both went in opposite directions because the opposite teams were taken. The point of this blurb is that the opening money is not our concern here as a lot of that money is bet to set up middle opportunities later. Right now our concern is the line going forward and I do not expect to see a lot of movement during the first week since the casual better is not going to tie up money for two weeks. We will see this number move most likely the middle of next week and it has no where to go but up in my opinion. Therefore, the advice here is to wait as we won’t get a worse number but the opportunity should be there to get a better number. The Colts have played the tougher schedule, based on the Saints playing in the weakest division in football. However, New Orleans is 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 while the Colts are 4-1 against teams ranked in the top 10. The matchups are where the game is ultimately won and lost and I firmly believe that the Saints have the edges in key categories. I was most impressed with Peyton Manning and the fact that he threw for 377 yards yet Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were almost non-factors. That shows how good he really is. The Jets secondary is solid with Darrelle Revis but New Orleans is playing much better. Against Sidney Rice for much of Sunday's game, cornerback Jabari Greer held the star wideout to just 43 receiving yards. While the Saints did not sack Brett Favre, they pressured him all night and that will be gameplan again against Manning. Manning does not go down much but applying no pressure is a recipe for disaster. The major difference between the very ordinary Saints of last season and the very good ones of this season has been the defense. They don’t really shut down offenses, but they’re extremely good at coming up with turnovers. On the other side, the Saints are a balanced offense, with a rushing offense that was sixth in the league keyed by Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. That compliments Drew Brees and the passing game and like Manning, Brees does not go down often. I heard Jared Allen’s name only once for the Vikings in the NFC Championship. The Colts have a stingy scoring defense that’s allowed only 18.2 ppg and limited opponents in the regular season to seven passing plays of 30 yards or more. That is great but looking back at who they have plays shows us they have faced teams ranked 18th or worse 12 times while facing only two teams ranked in the top ten. Those were again Houston twice and New England and Indianapolis allowed 382 or more yards in all three games including at least 274 yards passing. To no surprise, the Colts were outgained all three times. And they allowed 26 ppg while winning the three games by a total of 12 points. We need to give New Orleans a mulligan for its performance against the Vikings as that was not the same team that has played all season. This is a test the Colts have not has this year and the ones that were close, two could have resulted in losses and both of those were at home. Look for the Saints to win their first Super Bowl in the first try. 10* New Orleans Saints

Matt Fargo Sports NFL Football Past Picks

NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday February 7, 2010 6:25 pm
With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Sunday January 24, 2010 6:40 pm
We are getting excellent value in this total. Last week, the Saints/Cardinals had a total of 57 and this week the number is at 53 as of Tuesday morning. That is a difference of just four points which is a small decrease considering we are seeing the Vikings sixth ranked defense compared ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Sunday January 24, 2010 6:40 pm
I have been struggling with this line this week. There is not much of a difference between these two teams as both possess potent offenses and solid defenses so if anything, we should expect a close game. Therefore anything over a field goal is worth a look and currently, most books ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday January 24, 2010 3:00 pm
I liked the Jets last week and I like them even more this week. I believed they had a realistic shot to beat the Chargers outright and that obviously was the case and the same goes for Sunday against the Colts. New York has already gone into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts once ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers Sunday January 17, 2010 4:40 pm
**9** NFL SUNDAY STAR ATTRACTION **LATE** I went against the Jets last weekend against the Bengals for two reasons. I thought there was excellent value on the Bengals based on the shellacking they took in New York in Week 17 as well as the fact the Jets were sending a rookie quarterback ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday January 17, 2010 1:00 pm
**10** PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR *62% RUN* Once Dallas won yet again on Saturday, this game was circled as the spot just is not a good one for the Cowboys. The rating went up based on this line which is shorter than I expected. The Cowboys have been involved in some big games of late ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Saturday January 16, 2010 8:15 pm
**10** NFL SATURDAY “ENFORCER” *83% ANGLE* This is like déjà vu for the Ravens. Last season, Baltimore went to Miami and won rather easily and then went to Tennessee, the number one seed in the AFC, and won outright. It is certainly looking like a similar ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 16, 2010 4:30 pm
**9** NFL SATURDAY TOTALS **DOMINATOR** This total opener higher than I thought it would but looking at it further, this is the number that had to come out. We saw all four games in the Wild Card round go ‘Over’ so the totals this week are shaded that way because that ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Sunday January 10, 2010 4:40 pm
**10** NFL ENFORCER (SUNDAY) **20-10 L3Y** This is the third meeting this season between the Packers and Cardinals although one of those games took place in the preseason. You might think that these teams would know each other for this reason alone but in fact they really don’t ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports

NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 10, 2010 1:00 pm
**9** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *67% POST RUN* Since the start of the 2002 season, the Patriots have played seven playoff games at home and in only one of those, they were favored by less than four points. That game resulted in a win over the Colts in January of 2005 but the point is ... read more

Matt Fargo Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Matt Fargo Sports