Monday Night Football Picks To Win Matt Fargo Sports February 07, 2010 New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts

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February, 07 2010 6:25pm EST
ATS: New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

Photo_nfl With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the game. I have read so many conflicting stories about this line and where it opened. According to the Las Vegas Sun, the Colts opened as a 5.5-point favorite Sunday evening by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the group that sets the betting line. Within one hour, however, the number was bet down to 4.5 points at the Las Vegas Hilton and Station Casinos properties. For what it is worth, the number opened at -3 at offshore sites and was quickly bet up to -4 to -4.5 to -5 to -5.5. Obviously these two do not coincide with each other as each is stating that the sharp money came in to move the lines but both went in opposite directions because the opposite teams were taken. The point of this blurb is that the opening money is not our concern here as a lot of that money is bet to set up middle opportunities later. Right now our concern is the line going forward and I do not expect to see a lot of movement during the first week since the casual better is not going to tie up money for two weeks. We will see this number move most likely the middle of next week and it has no where to go but up in my opinion. Therefore, the advice here is to wait as we won’t get a worse number but the opportunity should be there to get a better number. The Colts have played the tougher schedule, based on the Saints playing in the weakest division in football. However, New Orleans is 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 while the Colts are 4-1 against teams ranked in the top 10. The matchups are where the game is ultimately won and lost and I firmly believe that the Saints have the edges in key categories. I was most impressed with Peyton Manning and the fact that he threw for 377 yards yet Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were almost non-factors. That shows how good he really is. The Jets secondary is solid with Darrelle Revis but New Orleans is playing much better. Against Sidney Rice for much of Sunday's game, cornerback Jabari Greer held the star wideout to just 43 receiving yards. While the Saints did not sack Brett Favre, they pressured him all night and that will be gameplan again against Manning. Manning does not go down much but applying no pressure is a recipe for disaster. The major difference between the very ordinary Saints of last season and the very good ones of this season has been the defense. They don’t really shut down offenses, but they’re extremely good at coming up with turnovers. On the other side, the Saints are a balanced offense, with a rushing offense that was sixth in the league keyed by Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. That compliments Drew Brees and the passing game and like Manning, Brees does not go down often. I heard Jared Allen’s name only once for the Vikings in the NFC Championship. The Colts have a stingy scoring defense that’s allowed only 18.2 ppg and limited opponents in the regular season to seven passing plays of 30 yards or more. That is great but looking back at who they have plays shows us they have faced teams ranked 18th or worse 12 times while facing only two teams ranked in the top ten. Those were again Houston twice and New England and Indianapolis allowed 382 or more yards in all three games including at least 274 yards passing. To no surprise, the Colts were outgained all three times. And they allowed 26 ppg while winning the three games by a total of 12 points. We need to give New Orleans a mulligan for its performance against the Vikings as that was not the same team that has played all season. This is a test the Colts have not has this year and the ones that were close, two could have resulted in losses and both of those were at home. Look for the Saints to win their first Super Bowl in the first try. 10* New Orleans Saints