Matt Fargo Sports Available Picks

March, 08 2010 8:05pm EST
ATS: Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a big time contrarian play but one that the value is squarely on our side. I have gone against Dallas in each of its last three road games and have been burnt each time. The first two were because of fourth quarter comebacks and last time out, it was able to build a big early lead and not allow the Bulls to come back. I am going back to the well once again as this time we have additional value with the two different streaks currently in place. The Mavericks have won 11 straight games and with the look of the upcoming schedule, there is talk around Dallas that this streak will be at 15 games when Boston comes calling on March 20th. I could care less if the Mavericks win this game outright as we are obviously more concerned about the point spread. This is a big number for any team to be laying on the NBA road and it doesn’t help Mavericks backers knowing that they are 7-23 this season when laying five or more points. Granted a lot of that is at home where the Mavericks have been wallet-burners but this is not exactly the most motivational situation for tonight. Minnesota has its own streak going as it has dropped five straight games overall and it has also lost five straight games at home dating back to February 10th. The Timberwolves are also just 1-11 in their last 12 games since putting together a four-game winning streak right before that. That winning streak tells us that this team is capable of good things and very good things for that matter especially when no one expects them to, Minnesota will get al Jefferson back tonight after serving a two-game suspension. Dallas has won five of the last six meetings in this series but only two of those were big victories. This season, the Timberwolves have been playing the Mavericks very tough as they won the second meeting in Dallas, one of only five road wins the entire season, and lost by just three points in Dallas last week. The Mavericks have owned the Timberwolves in Minnesota as they have won seven straight meetings there, all by double-digits and an average of 17.7 ppg. Included is a 22-point laugher in November and in that game neither Jefferson, nor Kevin Love were around. Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. 9* Minnesota Timberwolves

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Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies Friday February 10, 2012 8:05 pm
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers Friday February 10, 2012 7:05 pm
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday February 9, 2012 8:05 pm
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Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:35 pm
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:05 pm
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Tuesday February 7, 2012 10:35 pm
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Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks Tuesday February 7, 2012 8:05 pm
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers Monday February 6, 2012 10:05 pm
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Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers Saturday February 4, 2012 10:05 pm
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