Free Picks Basketball Matt Fargo Sports June 17, 2010 Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers

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Fargo's **10** NBA ENFORCER (SWEET 17-10 NBA RUN) (Sat 8:35PM)
Matt has been simply killing it in the NBA for years and now he is on an AWESOME 17-10-1 NBA run and his...more

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June, 17 2010 9:05pm EST
ATS: Boston Celtics +7 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Photo_nba I’m going to be on the Celtics for many of the same reasons I was on them for Game Six even though that did not turn out the right way. I was very surprised to see the Celtics come out as flat as they did and I know home court mean a lot to the Lakers but Boston look very lackadaisical from the get go, very similar to the Game One in this series. The Celtics bounced back following that game and while the dynamic is completely different here with everything on the line, we will see a better effort from the opening tip. A lot will be made about the absence of Kendrick Perkins who is pretty much guaranteed out after spraining two ligaments in his knee in Game Six. His loss will be big there is no doubt but Boston does have the bodies to fill in. They just need to step up and do so which goes into the point made earlier about coming into this one more fired up. Game Six saw the closing line of Los Angeles -6 and this game opened at -6.5 so the number is being shaded toward the favorite. The home team has had the edge in past history in this spot but it doesn’t mean a lot, especially when the Celtics are getting this many points. Overall, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game Sevens in the NBA Finals. Tightening that up, since the 2-3-2 playoff format of the NBA Finals was instituted in 1985, there have been three Game Sevens and the home team has won all three. However, those three wins were by an average of only 5.3 ppg. There is also some added pressure on the Lakers side. This is the first NBA Finals Game Seven for Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, who have played in 393 combined playoff games. Maybe most surprising, neither has Phil Jackson, who has coached in 322 postseason games and won 10 championships. Are we finally due for a close game? I think we deserve it. However, looking purely at probabilities, Boston has a 75 percent chance of covering based on the four different outcomes that can take place. If we do see a blowout, the Lakers or Celtics can be on the winning side, therefore a split cover. Should we see a close game, the Lakers or Celtics can again be on the winning side outright but the Celtics would cover in both instances. I did not include a Lakers seven-point win since a push means a wash. I like those chances and I also like the chances of yet another Boston upset in Los Angeles, something it has done in two of the four meetings there this season. 10* Boston Celtics