Free Nba Basketball Picks Matt Fargo Sports June 15, 2010 Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers

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Matt has been simply killing it in the NBA for years and now he is on an AWESOME 17-10-1 NBA run and his...more

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June, 15 2010 9:05pm EST
ATS: Boston Celtics +6.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Photo_nba As good as this series has been in my opinion, we have yet to see a game decided by fewer than six points through the first five games which is very surprising. This is even more surprising considering both of the regular season meetings were decided by a single point. I do not play the due theory but we are overdue for a classic finish and that definitely favors the underdog. That is far from the reason for this pick however as the basis is all about the value involved because of what the public is going to be doing here. The Lakers are down a game and have their backs against the wall and because of that, this is a ‘must win’ game or the series goes to the Celtics. The first two games in Los Angeles had the Lakers close as 6-point favorites and we are seeing an adjustment in Game Six, albeit small, which takes that ‘must win’ status into effect. We are seeing -6.5 lines pretty much across the board as of Monday morning with a couple of -7 numbers out there and that is where this number is going to climb before tipoff. The early money has come in on Boston but it is very limited meaning the smart money is in play while the square money has yet to even surface and that is going to be all over Los Angeles. We can look at matchups but after five games, these team know each other very well and there are no edges in place as this one comes down to execution. The lone edge that is in consideration remains the health of Andrew Bynum who despite playing 31 minutes on Sunday, was a non-factor with only six points and one rebound. The Lakers have dropped only eight home games all season but the Celtics have been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season as they are 32-19 and that includes a 6-4 record in the playoffs. Los Angeles is 9-1 at home in the playoffs and that may seem like a significant advantage but it really isn’t and that is not even taking this line into consideration. Boston is on a 10-4 ATS run and has covered 13 of the last 17 games in the series while the Lakers are just 15-28-2 ATS this season after scoring fewer than 100 points. Boston has already won here once in the postseason so doing it again is far from out of the question. The pressure is squarely on the Lakers Tuesday and we take advantage. 10* Boston Celtics