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October, 14 2011 8:05pm EST
MONEYLINE: St. Louis Cardinals -125
WIN for +4 unit(s)

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

With the NLCS now tied at two games apiece, Game Five is crucial for both sides but I would say more so for the Cardinals. If St. Louis loses Game Five, they would then be faced with the task of winning the final two games in Milwaukee which looks to be next to impossible considering that the Brewers had the best home record in baseball this regular season. Also, they are 4-1 at Miller Park in the playoffs. Prior to last night, the Brewers' last road victory in the playoffs was in 1982 in Game One of the World Series so making it two straight is a challenge.

Jaime Garcia gets the nod for Game Five and this is where the Cardinals wanted him. He allowed six runs on six hits and three walks in four innings in his first start in Game One at Milwaukee. It was not a huge surprise though as Garcia has not been very good on the road this season, now with a 4.97 ERA in 18 road starts but at Busch Stadium he has a 2.63 ERA in 16 outings. In his career, he is 16-9 with a 2.37 in 35 appearances at home and 11-7 with a 4.28 ERA in 35 road appearances. In four career home starts against the Brewers, he has a 0.64 ERA and has not allowed an earned run in three straight starts covering 22 innings.

Like Garcia, Zack Greinke struggled in Game One as he allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks in six innings. Still, the Brewers won that game and improved to 17-0 in his 17 home starts this season. The road has been a different story similar to the splits that Garcia has. Greinke has a 4.70 ERA in 13 road starts, going just 5-6 while Milwaukee is 6-7 in those 13 outings. He did post a quality start in his only start in St. Louis this season but Milwaukee lost 2-0 and going back further, the Brewers are 1-4 in Greinke's last five starts as a road underdog. 10* (920) St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Fargo Sports MLB Baseball Past Picks

MLB Baseball

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics Tuesday May 22, 2012 10:05 pm
The Angels lost the series opener last night, wasting another strong starting pitching effort for the third straight game as the offense continued its struggles. Los Angeles has been inconsistent at the plate all season and this has been especially true of late, scoring just five ... read more

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Saturday May 19, 2012 7:15 pm
The Rangers took the opener of this series last night to improve to 25-15 overall including 14-6 on the road. Those 14 road wins are tied with Baltimore for the most in the American League and they have built a five-game lead in the American League West. Derek Holland gets the call ... read more

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Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Friday May 18, 2012 7:05 pm
Jake Arrieta has been either really good or really bad this year and I expect to see the latter tonight. He is coming off consecutive horrible starts at home against the Rangers and Rays to push his ERA to 5.21 on the season and while he has been better on the road, this is not the ... read more

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Thursday May 17, 2012 10:05 pm
The Dodgers are finding life without Matt Kept pretty tough. Since going on the disabled list with an injured hamstring, the Dodgers have managed to score only six runs total, going 1-2 in the three games he has missed. They have dropped the last two and with the loss last night, ... read more

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Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Thursday May 17, 2012 3:35 pm
The Angels took the opener of this two-game set last night and they go for the two-game sweep this afternoon before heading out on a 10-game roadtrip. They have obviously been one of the biggest disappointments is baseball this season but they are far from out of anything with so ... read more

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Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals Wednesday May 16, 2012 8:10 pm
The Orioles won last night over the Yankees and were able to maintain their tie for first place in the American League East with Tampa Bay. Baltimore won just 30 road games all of last season and they are already over a third of the way there this year as they come into this series ... read more

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Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Wednesday May 16, 2012 7:10 pm
The Mets have been one of the bigger surprises in the National League and with Philadelphia and Miami off to slow starts, they are right in the thick of the National League East. They are coming off a loss against the Brewers last night but remain a solid 11-7 at home and this two-game ... read more

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Wednesday May 16, 2012 7:05 pm
Washington was riding a 4-1 run heading into Tuesday and with Stephen Strasburg on the hill, there was a good chance that was going to be extended. However, he did not pitch well thanks to some equipment issues (we won't delve further), and the Nationals ended up with a split with ... read more

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday May 16, 2012 7:00 pm
Boston has started to catch fire as it has won five straight games but keeping that momentum going will be tough. The winning streak has come against Cleveland and Seattle so it is not overly impressive not it travels to the division leader that is on a mini-run of its own. The Red ... read more

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles Tuesday May 15, 2012 7:05 pm
The Yankees have now won all four meetings in Baltimore this season following last night's series opening win. New York is now 4-1 in its last five games and 6-2 over its last eight contests to climb within 1.5 games of first place in the American League East. The offense has scored ... read more

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