Free Football Picks Handicapper Matt Fargo Sports January 07, 2012 SMU Mustangs @ Pittsburgh Panthers

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January, 07 2012 1:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 47 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

SMU Mustangs at Pittsburgh Panthers

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Pittsburgh is playing in the Compass Bowl for a second straight season. The Panthers defeated Kentucky in a low scoring game and I see another similar result to that. This is a pretty average offense coming in as Pittsburgh is 83rd in total offense and 69th in scoring offense and word is that the coaches plan on slowing things down even more and there will be more on that later. The Panthers total defense is ranked 40th overall and they have the personnel to slow down SMU.

The Mustangs incorporate a run and shoot offense under head coach June Jones but it is a wounded unit. Quarterback J.J. McDermott was decent as he is ranked 33rd in total offense but just 72nd in passing efficiency. He has two great receivers at his disposal but SMU lost running back Zach Line 10 games into the season after he put up 1,256 rushing yards and that is a big loss. The Mustangs defense finished 37th overall so this is a solid unit that held some tough C-USA offenses in check.

Pittsburgh lost head coach Todd Graham as he took the head coaching job at Arizona St. Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson takes over the head coaching duties for this game while quarterbacks coach Todd Dodge takes over as the interim offensive coordinator. They are both on the same page as they have come out with what their game plan is going to be and it favors a low scoring game. "We'll be a little more ball control, I think you will see that on Saturday. We will be a little bit different in our approach," Patterson said.

"We're going to try and take time off the clock and not necessarily be methodical in the way we do things, but ball control is going to be a little bit more of who we are," he said. "Our philosophy will be, 'Hey, let's play great defense and punting the football sometimes is not a bad play.' That is kind of the plan we will try to employ this Saturday." Dodge believes that its best chance to win is to possess the ball and keep the Mustangs offense off the field. He said he plans on using the short passing game.

Dodge said he has trimmed the play sheet to emphasize what quarterback Tino Sunseri does best. "I am a believer in 'less is more,' " he said. Pittsburgh is 14-4 to the under in its last 18 games away from home against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while going 11-2 to the under in its last 13 games coming off one or more straight overs. The Mustangs meanwhile are 17-6 to the under in their last 23 games away from home against teams completing 58 percent or more of their passes. 10* Under (265) SMU Mustangs/(266) Pittsburgh Panthers