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February, 09 2012 8:00pm EST
ATS: Arkansas Little Rock Trojans +6 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Arkansas Little Rock Trojans at UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns

This is a big game in the Sun Belt Conference but the line is not telling us that. Arkansas-Little Rock leads the SBC West Division by a half-game over tonight's counterpart and that being the case, this line is off a few points in my opinion. The Trojans are riding a three-game winning streak thanks to three straight home wins and while they are just 4-8 overall on the road, they are 4-1 in conference road games. The two notable road losses came against Kentucky and Michigan St.

Lafayette is riding a winning streak of its own as it has won its last four games including two at home and two on the road. The Cajuns are 9-2 at home this season which may be part of the reason this line is inflated as it is but the non-conference home schedule was against mostly inferior teams. They are 4-1 in SBC home games but taking a look at the last three victories shows they could be worse off right now as the last three home wins came by one points in overtime, two points and six points in overtime.

This is another example of road revenge taking place as the Trojans were embarrassed at home by Lafayette by 19 points. It was their worst offensive game of the year as they shot just 25.4 percent from the floor including 11.1 percent from long range and their 49 points were close to a season low. Making this game even bigger for Arkansas-Little Rock is the fact that a win here puts it up by a game and a half and the season series would be a split so the Cajuns would have to overtake them.

The Trojans are at Middle Tennessee St. on Saturday and that would normally make us think about a lookahead situation but that certainly won't happen here with everything going on. It actually makes the urgency of Thursday's game that much more. Arkansas-Little Rock has had fewer than 10 turnovers in each of its last three games which is a big streak coming onto this game. The Trojans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. 9* (723) Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

Matt Fargo Sports College Basketball Past Picks

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