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March, 10 2010 9:30pm EST
ATS: Texas Longhorns -9 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Longhorns

I have faded Texas numerous times down the stretch this season and a lot of those times it paid off as the Longhorns simply fell apart and struggled down the stretch. Because they started the season 17-0 and were ranked number one in the country at one point, they were overvalued in a lot of situations as the linesmakers had no choice but to inflate those lines based on public perception. However, I feel the value is actually on the side of Texas now and a lot of that is because of the first meeting between these two teams. The Longhorns were favored by eight points at Iowa St. less than two months back and that would have made them roughly a 12-point favorite on a neutral floor. Now Texas is favored by only nine points and while that first meeting was when Texas was playing good, this is a team no one should want to face come tournament time. Iowa St. came into the season with lofty expectations but it was another disappointing campaign as it finished 4-12 in the conference. Even though his numbers are solid, forward Craig Brackins took a step backwards and once projected as a lottery pick, that is not the case anymore. Some sources have called him lazy with the inability to make adjustments when needed. He had a very average game in the first meeting against Texas and he will likely struggle again against the solid Longhorns frontcourt. The Cyclones picked up an improbable road win at Kansas St. in their last game and while it may be a confidence boost, I do not see a repeat. The victory over the Wildcats snapped a 21-game road losing streak against ranked teams and while Texas is not ranked, I consider it right there. Texas’ depth will be a chief concern for the thin Cyclones. One of the biggest drawbacks for Texas was its ability to shoot free throws, which it simply could not do. The Longhorns have improved dramatically in that category, hitting 71.9 percent over their last five games and overall, they are hitting just 2.4 percent less than what the Cyclones are hitting from the line. The normal disadvantage is negated by the inability of Iowa St. to hit those foul shots as well. Other than that, Texas has advantages across the board, most notable offensive efficiency and overall efficiency. The Longhorns have an overall efficiency rating differential of +18.9 which is the second biggest of all of the conference games on the board today and that is a major difference. When we see a difference that big, we are usually dealing with a big double-digit line but that is not the case here. The Cyclones are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win as an underdog and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Texas has been a non-covering machine of late but this is the time the gas pedal is pushed to the limit. 10* Texas Longhorns

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Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ Saint Louis Billikens Wednesday March 31, 2010 8:00 pm
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North Carolina Tar Heels @ Rhode Island Rams Tuesday March 30, 2010 9:40 pm
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Pacific Tigers @ Missouri State Bears Tuesday March 30, 2010 8:00 pm
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Tennessee Volunteers @ Michigan State Spartans Sunday March 28, 2010 2:20 pm
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