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February, 09 2012 9:00pm EST
ATS: Iowa Hawkeyes +7 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern is coming off a big road win on Sunday at rival Illinois and now it is being asked to lay a big number against a team that possesses a better conference record. The Wildcats are now 4-6 in the Big Ten following two straight wins but getting that third straight victory will be a challenge as they have not won three straight games in the conference since the end of the 2008-09 season. Northwestern is 9-3 at home this season but just 3-2 in the conference.

The Hawkeyes have also won two straight and while both of those came at home, this is a much improved team from last season. Iowa won only four Big Ten games all of last season and a win here can put it into a tie for fifth place in the conference. Iowa has lost its last three road games in the Big Ten but those losses came against top teams in Purdue, Indiana and Michigan St. It does possess a quality road win at Wisconsin so winning on the road is certainly a possibility here.

Iowa will have a tough matchup on defense as the Wildcats employ the Princeton-style offense and the Hawkeyes must match up with Northwestern’s multiple three-point shooters and defend the backdoor plays. They defend the three-point shot well including allowing just 31.4 percent on the road. They should have a good gameplan in place after the Wildcats lit them up for 26 three-points in the two meetings last season. After allowing 103 points at Indiana, Iowa has allowed just 123 points the last two games.

As far as power ratings go, there is not a lot separating these two teams so a highly competitive game should be expected. The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS over the last 11 meetings in this series and this season the Hawkeyes are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Northwestern is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win and it is also 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Matt Fargo Sports College Basketball Past Picks

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