Ncaa Basketball Predictions Matt Fargo Sports February 06, 2010 William & Mary Tribe @ Georgia State Panthers

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February, 06 2010 6:00pm EST
ATS: William & Mary Tribe -1.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

William & Mary Tribe at Georgia State Panthers

Photo_cbb William & Mary had a chance to move to within a game of first place in the Colonial but it lost at conference leader Old Dominion on Wednesday. The loss came by 19 points but the game was much closer than that throughout as Old Dominion used a late 14-2 run to pull away. The defeat was the fourth in the last five games for the Tribe who are slipping further back in the standing after a great start to the season. Losses in this stretch include two against the monarchs as well as one against Virginia Commonwealth so the opposition has been stiff although a two-point loss at James Madison was inexcusable. Playing on the road again should not be a problem despite three straight setbacks away from home. William & Mary had won seven straight road games prior to this little skid and that included outright wins at Wake Forest and Maryland. These next two games are important as this one alone with a home game against Delaware are almost must-win games since the Tribe goes up against Northeastern and George Mason two games after that, both of whom share first place with Old Dominion. Georgia St. has been up and down this season and it has mostly been down when playing against the good opposition. This does not include the last game however as the Panthers pulled off what many consider a huge upset over then first place George Mason. I say what many consider because the Panthers were actually favored in that game by a point which was one of those tricky lines that put the majority of the betting public on the visiting Patriots. That win was definitely a big one and head coach Rod Barnes summed it up pretty well by saying, “Our best win of the year.” That spells a huge letdown and it makes it even stronger against a team that is struggling as is the case with William & Mary. Georgia St. possesses only two more wins against conference foes at home and those came against NC-Wilmington and Towson, which are a combined 4-19 in the conference and 12-23 overall. And those wins were far from easy on top of it. The problem for the Panthers has been a horrid offense. They are ranked last in the CAA in points scored, averaging just 61.2 ppg in all games and just 59.4ppg in conference play, ahead of only NC-Wilmington. They are shooting 41.5 percent from the floor which is pretty bad but even worse is its 96.3 offensive efficiency rating. That is second to last in the conference and conversely, the Tribe have a 112.1 rating which is second behind VCU and 38th in the nation. This is part of the reason that William & Mary has a 1.37 to 0.80 edge in assist/turnover ratio. The Tribe are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss while the Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a spread cover. 9* (623) William & Mary Tribe