College Tournament Basketball Picks Matt Fargo Sports March 12, 2010 North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Florida State Seminoles

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March, 12 2010 9:45pm EST
ATS: Florida State Seminoles -6 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles

Photo_cbb NC State pulled off a pretty big upset last night at it defeated Clemson as seven-point underdogs and that can add to the confidence, I firmly believe that run is done. Quality wins have been few and far between this season for NC State and obviously the biggest came against Duke but the celebration did not last long, or should I say maybe they celebrated too long. The Wolfpack dropped seven straight ACC games after that with a win over NC Central being the only victory that was sandwiched in there. They did come into the ACC Tournament with some momentum as they won three of their last four regular season games and last night’s win makes it four of the last five. The only other real quality win on the schedule came at Florida St. as 11-point underdogs. The Wolfpack were actually outshot in that game but managed to hit 11-23 behind the arc (47.8 percent) and that from a team that is hitting just 33.6 percent from long range on the season. That was the difference and the Seminoles have not forgotten as it ended up being their worst home loss of the season as the other two setbacks came by just three and four points. Florida St. brings in one of the best defenses in the country. Its defensive efficiency rating of 88.3 is in fact the best not only in the ACC but in the entire nation. Since allowing 88 points against NC State, the Seminoles allowed more than 70 points only three times in their next 13 games. Those 88 points are 11 more than the next-highest total the Seminoles, who give up a league-low 60.2 ppg, have allowed. Judging by the way the team has looked this week, they are relaxed and loose and that is important in these games as playing tight often leads to playing bad. Florida St. head coach Leonard Hamilton says the Seminoles are fully capable of getting back to the title game, as they did last season, despite the tough road ahead, but his players’ own execution on the court on Friday is the first key towards getting back there. Play on neutral court teams that are revenging a loss as a favorite going up against that opponent that is coming off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. This situation is 82-43 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1997. 9* Florida St. Seminoles