March Madness Predictions Free Matt Fargo Sports April 05, 2010 Butler Bulldogs @ Duke Blue Devils

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April, 05 2010 9:21pm EST
ATS: Butler Bulldogs +7.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Butler Bulldogs at Duke Blue Devils

Photo_cbb I was definitely surprised by this line as I had it pegged around 4.5 points but this line is telling us that Duke would be favored by 9 points over Michigan St. on a neutral floor and I am not buying that. Based on the lines, if the Spartans had won over Butler, that is the number we would see based on this number and the fact that the Bulldogs were favored by a point and a half on Saturday. Obviously lines are not determined that way but it does give up a good comparison to look at, especially when we are dealing with a very public team in Duke and a mid-major team in Butler. I played against Duke on Saturday and one of the statistical reasons was three-point shooting. The Blue Devils shot light out from behind the arc against Baylor and my thought was there was no chance they could do it again but they did. After hitting 47.8 percent from long range against the Bears, they followed it up by hitting 52 percent from three-point land against West Virginia. I don’t play the ‘overdue’ theory but I simply cannot see the Blue Devils converting that type of percentage against a great perimeter defense that Butler possesses. The Bulldogs have held all seven postseason opponents to fewer than 60 points while also holding 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than that as well. The argument is that the Duke offense is too good and it will not matter. The same could have been said for Murray St., Syracuse, Kansas St. and Michigan St. who were held to 25.5, 22.5, 23.6 and 22.6 points respectively below their season averages. Butler has been able to force the opponent to play its style of grind-it-out, slow paced basketball and I don’t see it changing here. Especially with the opposition having just one day to prepare. Duke has a defense that is just as good and with these two solid defenses, we should see a low scoring game and based on the numbers, the projection is 68-60 or 68-61. Those offensive totals are both about eight points lower than the offensive scoring averages of both teams. However the defensive totals are not in line. The number for Duke is right on but the projection for Butler is allowing close to nine points more than its season average and that is giving the Blue Devils offense way too much credit. From a straight number standpoint, there is significant value on the Bulldogs. One of the major questions in this game is the availability of Butler forward Matt Howard who is considered a gametime decision because of a mild concussion. There is no way he misses the most important game of his life and if he somehow does sit this one out, I would not want him in there anyway. He does not come across as that type of player however as I think it will take a lot more than that to keep him out. He went only 1-7 and scored four points in 15 minutes against the Spartans so his absence was not huge there. It will be big if he cannot make it but that does not mean Butler is done. The defense of both sides puts Butler into a great situation as well. Play against neutral court favorites after a blowout win by 20 points or more in a game involving two excellent defensive teams that are allowing 63 or fewer ppg. This situation is 68-37 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1997. 10* Butler Bulldogs