Matt Fargo Sports Available Picks

April, 01 2010 7:00pm EST
ATS: Dayton Flyers -3 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

North Carolina Tar Heels at Dayton Flyers

After winning the NCAA Championship a season ago, North Carolina can become the first team ever to win the NCAA Title and the NIT Title in consecutive years. If it were reversed then it may mean something but this is a first that the Tar Heels will not be proud of. Give them credit however as they are playing hard still and find themselves in the championship game, albeit from a bad call in the semifinals against Rhode Island. North Carolina has picked up its defensive intensity during this NIT run but offensively it is still problematic as the Tar Heels are coming off a 34.9 percent shooting night against Rhode Island and the Rams are far from a strong team defensively. Tonight they will face their biggest test of this tournament as Dayton is all about defense. The Flyers are allowing just 62.1 ppg on 39.1 percent shooting from the floor this season and most importantly, it is seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency and North Carolina, which is shooting just above 40 percent over its last five games, is going to have a tough time. This is a team that went the entire ACC season without scoring 80 points in a game and that was the first time that has ever happened in the history or North Carolina basketball so that is definitely saying something. Dayton is far from a juggernaut on offense but it definitely has advantages. Looking at the last five games, the Flyers are +8.4 ppg in scoring margin while North Carolina is just +2.4 ppg. The Flyers are +8.2 percent in shooting margin including +15.5 percent from long range. Conversely, North Carolina is only +2.4 percent in shooting margin including -10 percent from behind the arc. Most important are the turnovers and efficiency that comes into play. On the season, the Tar Heels are -0.05 in assist/turnover ratio margin while Dayton is +0.21 and while that difference may seem minimal, one team that is positive and one team that is negative is a huge advantage toward the former. “We are playing our best basketball of the year right now,” said Dayton coach Brian Gregory, whose team improved to 24-12. “Guys are fresh. Guys are playing hard. We are playing with great energy.” I can’t disagree with that. North Carolina has struggled against better defensive teams this season going 3-10 ATS against teams allowing fewer than 64 ppg. Also the Tar Heels are 1-11 ATS on the season after two or more consecutive ‘Unders’ while Dayton is on an 8-0 ATS run in non-conference action. The Flyers are clearly playing better right now and they carry that into a big win tonight. 10* Dayton Flyers

Matt Fargo Sports College Basketball Past Picks

College Basketball

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Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats Thursday February 9, 2012 9:00 pm
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Kansas Jayhawks @ Baylor Bears Wednesday February 8, 2012 7:00 pm
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Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats Tuesday February 7, 2012 7:00 pm
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College Basketball

Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos @ Cal State Fullerton Titans Saturday February 4, 2012 9:00 pm
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