March Madness Point Spread Matt Fargo Sports February 06, 2010 Kent State Golden Flashes @ Central Michigan Chippewas

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February, 06 2010 7:00pm EST
ATS: Kent State Golden Flashes -3 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Kent State Golden Flashes at Central Michigan Chippewas

Photo_cbb I rode Kent St. to victory on Thursday over Eastern Michigan and this one should be easier. I believe we get a lot more value here based on the records of both teams and that record will have the attention of the Golden Flashes no matter what they have done of late. To be honest, this one sets up so similar to Thursday, I will almost write verbatim. Kent St. has started its run against the MAC West a perfect 4-0 and there is no reason to think it ends tonight. The Golden Flashes sit atop the MAC East with a 7-2 record and the last thing they need is to give up ground to Akron and Miami by losing to teams from the much weaker West. How much weaker? The top team in that division is Central Michigan who has a power ranking of 183rd and every team from the East has a higher ranking than that showing the distribution of power this season is clearly one-sided. Kent St. was picked to finish near the bottom of the stacked division but it truly was a wide open scenario and so far the Golden Flashes have taken advantage. This is a very experienced team with seven seniors but it has been a sophomore than has really stepped up as Justin Greene leads the team in scoring and rebounding and he is part of a deep group of nine players averaging at least 14 minutes per game. The Golden Flashes bring in a six-game winning streak and are a very solid 6-4 in true road games but most impressive is that they have won 15 straight games against MAC West opposition. Central Michigan was the preseason pick to win the MAC West and so far it has met those expectations as it leads the division with a 6-2 record. The Chippewas were picked to win the division because it is so weak and not because this is a team that is exceptionally strong. Just look at that power ranking to prove that. Central Michigan has defeated two teams from the MAC East in its last two games but those were against Buffalo and bowling Green, both of which are not at the high end of the division. The Chippewas are 4-0 at home within the conference which is solid but three wins came against Ball St., Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois, all form the West. On the season, Central Michigan has played the nation’s 232nd ranked schedule which is extremely soft and as a result you would think some of their numbers would be inflated but that is hardly the case. The Chippewas are shooting just 40.7 percent from the floor while their offensive efficiency rating is a dismal 96.5 which is 230th in the country. This has resulted in, or resulted from, an assist/turnover ratio that sits at a putrid 0.67, which is 328th in the country. That is not going to win many games against good teams. This is a game of contrasting styles and while the defense tends to prevail the majority of the time, that should not be the case here with experience vs. youth. Kent St. is the team with the stronger offense obviously and as mentioned, the Golden Flashes are a very veteran team that knows what it takes to win, especially on the road. Kent St. has an offensive efficiency rating of 104.8 which leads the conference. Here is the real kicker however. While the Chippewas supposedly thrive with their defense, they have a 98.1 defensive efficiency rating which is sixth in the MAC. The Golden Flashes have the best rating on that side of the ball as well, posting a rating of 94.5. And this is with playing a schedule ranked nearly 100 spots higher. Central Michigan’s last regular-season victory against the Flashes came in 1997. 10* (651) Kent St. Golden Flashes