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February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New York Giants +3 (-120)
WIN for +2.5 unit(s)
New York Giants at New England Patriots
Play On: New York Giants (Game 101)
Note: It’s back to the drawing board for two teams who meet in Super Bowl XLVI at the ’House that Peyton Built’ in Indianapolis in a renewal of Super Bowl XLII when New York knocked off New England, 17-14, in dramatic fashion to deny the Patriots a 19-0 perfect season in Glendale. In that contest the Giants rode a 10-game road win streak into the game while the undefeated Patriots were skating on thin ice riding on a 5-game ATS losing skid. When the final dust settled New England’s top-ranked offense and its 4th ranked defense that had allowed 293 YPG on the season was not enough to hold off MVP Eli Manning’s charges when he led the Giants on an improbable 12-play, 83-yard scoring drive, capped by a Plaxico Burress TD grab in the final minute, as 12-point underdog New York went on to outgain New England, 338-274, to become the first NFC Wild Card team to ever capture a Super Bowl title.
Rest assured a lot has happened since. The Giants have gone 42-26 SU and 36-31-1 ATS since claiming the crown. Inside those numbers New York has posted a 14-9 ATS dog log while winning 11 of 16 battles against AFC opposition, including 4-1 SU and ATS as a dog. The G-Men are also 11-3 ATS away off back-to-back wins and 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in games versus greater than .700 foes since SB XLII. On the flip side, the Patriots have gone 50-18 SU and 38-20-1 ATS in games after seeing dreams of a perfect season ruined, including 20-6 SU and 18-8 ATS when playing off a pointspread loss. In addition, New England has gone 14-2 SU and 8-8 ATS against NFC opponents but is only 13-10 SU and 11-11-1 ATS in game against greater than .625 opposition during the same span.
There are, however, are a lot of differences in the two teams that will take the field this year on Super Bowl Sunday as opposed to those that met in SB XLII. For openers, Patriots 2nd ranked offense is fueled by an attack that goes through Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The ‘Boston TE party’ - as dubbed by NBC Sports’ Gregg Rosenthal - can be lethal. The biggest complexion change surrounds a patchwork New England defense that ranks 31st in the league, one that was 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS in games against .625 or less opponents, but 3-3 and 2-4 ATS against better, this season. It also explains the Pats’ 1-4 ATS mark in games versus fellow playoff teams and 1-3 ATS record versus NFC foes this season. Meanwhile, the Giants played up and down to the level of opposition this campaign, going 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents as opposed to 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS against losing teams. Big Blue was 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in games outside the NFC with two SU underdog wins. The G-Men were also 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in games against other playoff teams.
And speaking of the 2011 season, New England’s opponents combined for an overall record of 141-157 (.473) while New York took on foes that ended up 176-139 (.559). Thus, advantage Giants on strength-of-schedule. New York upset New England in Foxboro as 9-point underdogs despite being outgained by 77 yards in the contest, thus setting up a ‘double-revenge’ incentive for Tom Brady’s bunch. Interestingly, teams playing with same season loss revenge are 7-5 SU in Super Bowls, including 3-0 the last three games. Revenge has been a staple for the Patriots especially under the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Dynamic Duo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss, including 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS when playing off three or more wins in a row. In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this campaign. And while we’re on the subject of Terrific Twosomes, Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are Batman and Robin in their own right when playing outside the bat cave, going 40-25 SU and 41-23-1 ATS outside Giants Stadium, including 27-12 SU and 28-10-1 ATS in games when off a win.
Additionally, these two teams squared off against one another’s division in 2011 and the results were, for all intents and purposes, diametrically opposite. New England was 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS and 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in games against the NFC East while New York hit a grand slam against the AFC East, going 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 ITS. Looking back, the Giants are 14-2 ATS as dogs against AFC East division foes since 1980, including 6-0 ATS when New York owns a win percentage of more than .625. On the flip side, over the same span the Patriots are are 11-27-1 ATS versus NFC East opposition, including 0-6 ATS in games in which the foe is off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
The clincher in the game is the fact that the higher seeded team is 1-12-2 ATS in Super Bowl games the last 16 years, including 0-7 ATS when the opponent owns the better defense.
Finally, in closing we note that No. 1 seeds in Super Bowl games are 6-12-1 ATS since 1990, including 2-8 SU and ATS the last 10, while Super Bowl teams who lost SU as a favorite in the playoffs last year are 4-8 SU and ATS, including 0-4 ATS as favorites. In addition, teams off a SU underdog win are 12-6-1 ATS in Super Bowl games, including 6-1-1 ATS off back-to-back SU underdog wins. Given the fact that teams with a better win percentage are on a 3-5 SU and 0-8 ATS Super Bowl slide, we'll back Eli Manning as he improves to 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS away from home in his NFL career in postseason games. We recommend a 3-unit play on the NY Giants. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc Lawrence NFL Football Past Picks
NFL Football
New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
Play On: New York Giants (Game 101)Note: It’s back to the drawing board for two teams who meet in Super Bowl XLVI at the ’House that Peyton Built’ in Indianapolis in a renewal of Super Bowl XLII when New York knocked off New England, 17-14, in dramatic fashion to ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
Play On: San Francisco 49ers (Game 630)Note: If there was ever a more exciting playoff game than last week’s Niners win over the Saints we’d like to know which one it was. Sure, the Giants polishing off the Packers had to rank up there as far as major surprises ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
Play On: Baltimore Ravens (Game 301Note: For the first time since 2004 the top two seeds will meet in the AFC championship game this Sunday. And of all the quarterback performances that stood out in the NFL playoffs last week, Tom Brady’s was head and shoulders the most ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
Play On: Baltimore Ravens (Game 114)Note: A tip of the hat to the Texans on their Wild Card round victory last week. However, it’s our contention the buck stops here. For openers, the Ravens have never lost a game in this series, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. In addition, ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
Play On: San Francisco 49ers (Game 110)Note: Drew Brees, the NFL’s record-setting passing yardage leader, takes his torrid act to Candlestick Park where many a red-hot flame has been known to blow out like a candle in the wind at this stage of the season as the Niners 17-5 ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
Play On: Denver Broncos (Game 108)Note: Here we go again. Another week of Tebow-bashing is in the offing and with it the critics are out in full force following the Broncos’ debacle against the Chiefs last week. Despite a sorrowful 6-for-22 passing effort, good for 60 ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Saturday January 7, 2012 4:30 pm
Play On: Houston Texans (Game 102)Note: Postseason virgin Houston arrives at playoff island this week, liberating abstinent Texans’ fans in the process. And while critics may say Houston backed into the postseason off three consecutive losses, the argument can be made ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Sunday January 1, 2012 8:20 pm
Play On: Dallas (Game 311)Note: NBC could not have asked for a better way to end the regular season. First off we acknowledge the fact that both quarterbacks, New York's Eli Manning and Dallas' Tony Romo each bring good numbers into this contest (Manning #9 with 90.3 QB rating ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 1, 2012 4:15 pm
Play On: Kansas City Chiefs (Game 329)Note: NBC passed on this game in favor of the Cowboys-Giants ‘winner takes all’ battle Sunday night. Regardless, this contest is filled with plenty of intrigue as QB Kyle Orton returns to the city that cast him aside in favor of its ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
NFL Football
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders Sunday January 1, 2012 4:15 pm
Play On: San Diego Chargers (Game 327)Note: The Chargers have burned more money for their backers than an incinerator this season, losing more games to the spread (10) than any year since 2003. Incredibly, though, the Bolts have outgained foes an average 52 YPG as they enter ... read more
Marc Lawrence Bio and Picks | Articles By Marc Lawrence
