Football Picks Free Marc Lawrence January 09, 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers

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January, 09 2012 8:30pm EST
ATS: Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers

Photo_cfb Play On: Alabama (Game 269)
Note: This game could end up being college football’s answer to the ‘Thrilla In Manila,’ that epic heavyweight war between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier. But Ali-Frazier were tied 1-1 heading to the Philippines whereas Les Miles’ LSU Tigers have taken the last two from Nick Saban’s Tide. Let’s face it: how many times have you watched an overtime game that ended with a 9-6 score, like the first meeting between these two, and immediately thought, “Wow… what a GREAT game.” Not often, we’re sure, but that first battle between these SEC titans in Tuscaloosa was so nerve-wracking intense the ending suggested that unfinished business might lay ahead at season’s end. And fortunately for those eagerly awaiting a rematch, all the dominoes fell in the right place. In fact, this is the first time in NCAA history that three ranked rematches have occurred in the same season (Virginia Tech-Clemson and Wisconsin-Michigan State met in conference title games the first week in December). However, no two teams in the entire country appear to be as evenly matched as these. The six common opponents the two squads faced this season have produced eerily common game numbers. Are you ready? Alabama was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, outscoring the opponents 231-58 while laying 112.5 points and winning the stats a total of 264 yards. LSU was 6-0 SU and ATS, outscoring foes 226-54 while laying 97.5 points and winning the stats 200 yards overall. Amazing, huh? One look at the O/U total of just 40 points and you know immediately this confrontation is all about defense. The Tide roll in with the top-ranked scoring defense in the land, just 9 PPG, while holding all 11 FBS foes to 14 or fewer points this season… but LSU is right there in 2nd spot, yielding only 11 PPG. Alabama’s defense also held seven foes to season-low yards in 2011, the nation’s best… compared to LSU’s five. When the Crimson Tide take the field in a bowl where the opponent is off a SU and ATS win, the boys from Bama have emerged 9-2 SU and ATS. But the Bayou Bengals are an explosive 8-0 SU and ATS versus fellow bowlers this season, and went 7-0 (6-1 ATS) against the SEC East for the first time in school history. Bama coach Nick Saban is murder when playing with conference revenge, going 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS… but The Mad Hatter is 5-1 SU and ATS in LSU bowl games, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in BCS bowls. In addition, the Tigers beat eight ranked teams this year – three that were ranked in the Top 3. Folks, we could go on like this all day and change every stat to bold type… but that wouldn’t change our opinion about this contest. The bottom line is we can’t see Saban losing twice to the same team in the same season, especially with his second crystal trophy at Alabama up for grabs. The clincher is the fact that in history of BCS championship game there have been only six teams that took the field having won 18 or less of their previous 22 games in straight up fashion (the majority have 19 or more). These teams eager to prove they belong are 6-0 SU and ATS in these title games (Auburn last year). In a matchup that would make the legendary Lombardi envious, Alabama turns up the intensity – and turns back the Tigers. We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama. Thank you and good luck as always.