February, 05 2012 6:30pm EST
ATS: New England Patriots -3 (100)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

New York Giants at New England Patriots

30* graded play on New England as they take on the New York Giants in the Super iBowl set to start at 6:29 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that NE will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a Money Line system that has produced a record of 22-5 mark for 82% winners since 2001. Play on any team using the money line revenging a loss against opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more points and with a winning record on the season. This system is also 4-1 making 2.5 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons. Here are some game situations supporting NE and then I will present he matchups showing NE to have a major advantage in this game. NE is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game after 8 or more games since 1992. Giants defense was gashed last week by the 49ers and are just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons; Patriots 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. 

The media is completely focused on the hot Giants and the fact that they have 21 players from their 2008 Super Bowl winning team. Do not get caught up with evaluating playoff experience or how first time Patriots players will handle the big-game hype. Belichick and Brady are making their fifth Super Bowl appearance and have the most playoff wins as a head coach/quarterback tandem in NFL history. This leadership will transcend the entire team. The Giants defensive front has done very well down the stretch in the Giants’ five elimination games. What is being overlooked is that the Patriots have two of the best guards in the NFL and they have solid tackles too. One way to contain the Giants elite perimeter pass rushers is to use either a third TE or another OL. They have used this scheme this season successfully. Keep in mind too, that Brady has great command of the pocket and can move around the pocket giving him that extra half second to get the ball out. Moreover, most of the time, Brady has the ball out of his hand in two seconds or less and that takes away any perimeter pressure the Giants may be able to attain. The media would lead you to believe too, the Patriots are a pass oriented offense and that the Giants will use their ‘Four Aces” defensive front that will dominate the Patriots offensive line. For the season, the Patriots average 6.3 yards per play, rush the ball 41% of the time, pass 58.9% of the time, and Brady has completed 65% of his pass attempts. By comparison, the Giants have averaged 5.9 yards per play, rush the ball 39.8% of the time, pass 60.2% of the time, and Manning has completed 61.1% of pass plays. It will be the Patriots running game that will be the dominant reason they win the Super Bowl.  The Giants will not enjoy that luxury of maintaining a balanced offensive attack as their head coach Coughline mandates in every game plan. Led by Vince Wilfork the interior of New England's defensive line has played well of late, and running up the middle has become a difficult endeavor against the Patriots, who did quite well keeping Ray Rice well contained in the AFC Championship Game. Giants center David Baas will be overwhelmed by Wilfork, especially in passing downs. Now, the Patriots TE are an elite tandem that the Giants just do not have an sawer for in this matchup. Gronkowski is not going to practice due to his high ankle sprain and his playing status will be a better kept secret than any war secret could possibly be. Aaron Hernandez presents his own problems to the Giants defense. He can line up anywhere on the field and Brady is a master at creating the best matchup for his offense. He has also been a running back in four wide receiver sets with empty backfields. Add in Welker, who will  be covered by the Giants best cover man in Corey Webster, who took Michael Crabtree out of the NFC Championship game. But, Welker is a slot receiver, who is crafty and can get separation far better than Crabtree. If the Giants play man-coverage, then Brady can use his TE’s and methodically move the team down the field with strong running between the tackles by Green-Ellis. Giants gave up 5.4 yards per rush to the 49ers and I strongly believe the Patriots have a vastly superior run blocking offensive line. A wild card is using RB Danny Woodhead, who is just as good a slot receiver as he is running back. I could go on and on with all the various matchup advantages the Patriots enjoy, but I think you get the point. 

Based on the simulator projections here is the list of proposition bets: 

3* play ‘UNDER’ Giants points lined at 27 ½ -110

3* ‘under’ Giants first half points lined at 13 ½ even. You may be able to get 14 later in the week.

3* Patriots -10 ½ +300

3* ‘Over’ 3 ½ field goals made -110

3* Patriots first downs made 23 ½ -110

3* Total completions by Tome Brady 25 ½ -110

3* Green-Ellis ‘over’ 47 ½ rushing yards

3* Danny Woodhead rushing yards 25 ½ -110

3* Danny Woodhead ‘over’ 10 ½ -110 receiving yards. 

Thanks for a great NFL and CFB season and I look forward to providing continued NBA, CBB, and NHL where I am hitting a combined 60%. Best of luck to everyone and please remember to bet with discipline and responsibility. No game, not even the Super Bowl is worth jeopardizing the life you enjoy now and betting beyond your means is just not the right thing to do. Thanks, John Ryan. 

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New York Giants @ New England Patriots Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
30* graded play on New England as they take on the New York Giants in the Super iBowl set to start at 6:29 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that NE will win this game by four or more points. ... read more

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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
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New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 pm
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 8, 2012 4:30 pm
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Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Sunday January 8, 2012 1:00 pm
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Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 7, 2012 8:00 pm
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Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Saturday January 7, 2012 8:00 pm
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Saturday January 7, 2012 4:30 pm
15* graded play ‘UNDER’ Houston/Cincinnati in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs set to start at 4:30 PM ET.  My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 38 points will be scored in this game. Supporting ... read more

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