John Ryan Sports Available Picks

July, 29 2010 12:10pm EST
RUNLINE: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)
WIN for +5 unit(s)

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Detroit using the Run Line set to start at 12:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that TB will cover the run line easily. Detroit is in a series of poor situations for this game. Detroit is  21-41 against the run line (-23.7 Units) versus an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TB starter Price is a near perfect 8-1 against the run line (+8.1 Units) versus poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 8-1 against the run line (+8.2 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Since Leyland has been the manager of the Tigers he is only 29-49 against the run line (-27.4 Units) in road games versus an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season. We have a strong team with a starter near top form and an excellent bullpen playing a team that struggles to score runs in road games and a starter who is 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA and a 1.807 WHIP in 6 road starts. Detroit starter Porcello has not won since May 23rd. Tb starter Price is a solid Cy Young candidate who has posted a 13-5 record with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.225 WHIP. Price is a LH starter that mostly throws fastball and slider and mixes in change and curves to RH batters. He works most away to LH batters with 19% of his pitches low and away and the large majority of those pitches just outside the strike zone. It is that fact that has made him a dominating starter this season forcing batters to hit his pitch. Not to mention that he really needs only one pitch, his fastball, as hitters are hitting just 215 on that pitch. Most starters and relievers get a huge advantage when they get ahead in the count, but Porcello is NOT one of them. Tampa Bay can attack early in the count or work the count to their favor. On the first pitch batters are hitting 378; after 0-2 batters are hitting 318; with the count 1-0 they are hitting 355; on a 2-1 count they are batting 531. Enough said. Take Tampa bay as your Run Line Game of the Year. 

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