March Madness Expert Picks John Ryan Sports April 03, 2010 West Virginia Mountaineers @ Duke Blue Devils

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April, 03 2010 9:12pm EST
ATS: West Virginia Mountaineers +2.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

West Virginia Mountaineers at Duke Blue Devils

Photo_cbb <p>15* graded play on West Virginia as they take on Duke in the Final 4 set to start at 8:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that This is going to be a game focused on rebounding at both ends of the glass. We strongly believe that WVU has a significant advantage and it will be led by forwards Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones. Duke guard Nolan Smith has been leading his team in scoring during the tournament, but he does not match up well against WVU guards of Butler and Mazzulla. No doubt Duke will look to extend WVU defense by hitting shots from behind the arc. Unless Duke hits over 55% of these shots, WVU will prefer Duke take these perimeter shots. WVU gets close to 16 offensive boards and their team is noted in the media for their glass crashing. Yet, what will be even more important and noticeable in this game will be how well WVU blocks out on the defensive end. If WVU gets more than 5 second chance opportunities than Duke it will more than offset any strong perimeter shooting by Duke. Neither team shoots the ball well, but WVU has significant advantages in quickness and athleticism. We also see Duke’s 7’1” Senior Center Brian Zoubek not being a factor because it will be near impossible for Duke to block all of the WVU “leapers”. There has been much attention directed at WVU lack of depth at guard, but here again be don’t see Duke being able to pressure any of the guards enough to create turnovers. Duke CANNOT elect to apply pressure on the guard because any of them have the quickness to go right around the defender and then that opens up very easy scoring opportunities. In addition, Duke would prefer to win the game with their perimeter shooting and not on creating turnovers. The model also shows that WVU will get between 40 and 44 rebounds in this game and will have less than 13 tunrovers. They are 11-1 against the money line (+9.6 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 against the money line (+8.0 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season.</p>
<p>10* graded play UNDER West Va/Duke in the Final Four set to start at 8:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that less than 130 points will be scored in this game. There are numerous situations based on past games against similar opponents that show the UNDER is the play. WVU is a solid 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after a game where their opponent was called for 27 or more fouls over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-18 UNDER for 70% winners since 2004. Play under with neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (W VIRGINIA) after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and with four starters returning from last season. Take the UNDER. </p>