College Basketball Favorites John Ryan Sports April 05, 2010 Butler Bulldogs @ Duke Blue Devils

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April, 05 2010 9:21pm EST
TOTAL: Under 128.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Butler Bulldogs at Duke Blue Devils

Photo_cbb 25* graded play Under Duke/Butler in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 9:15 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that there will be fewer than 125 points scored in this game. Despite shooting 52% in their win over WVU, Duke is not a strong shooting team this season. They have relied on defense and generating opportunities off transition. However, Butler has focused on the defensive end when facing teams like Duke in past games. They are 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=42% after 15+ games this season; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus good rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games this season; 8-2 UNDER (+5.8 Units) versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. As mentioned earlier Duke shot far above their norma in the last game, especially from 3- point territory. Duke is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 54-27 for 67% winners since 1997. Play under with neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games. We see Butler controlling the tempo of the game and shortening it to the last 10 minute game. We also see Butler doing a far better job against Duke’s perimeter offense.
5* graded play on Butler ON THE MONEY LINE as they take on Duke. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Butler will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a very real opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 105-48 making 57.2 units since 1997. Play on neutral court teams after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games and with all five starters returning from last season. Butler is 16-2 against the money line (+15.6 Units) in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots this season; 9-0 against the money line (+10.6 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Take Butler. 
5* graded play on Butler getting the 7 points. Here are so prop bets we like. 3* UNDER Duke total points of 68. 3* UNDER total 3-pointers made of 12.5 (-115). 3* UNDER 18 points scored by John Scheyer. 3* UNDER total points and rebounds of 25 by Kyle Singler. 
Last, thanks to all of you for another successful college basketball season. Without your loyalty I would not be entering my 17th year of providing sports handicapping research. Make certain to get my MLB plays as this sport has produced the greatest profits in recent years.