March Madness Predictions John Ryan Sports April 01, 2010 North Carolina Tar Heels @ Dayton Flyers

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April, 01 2010 7:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 137.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

North Carolina Tar Heels at Dayton Flyers

Photo_cbb 15* graded play OVER UNC/Dayton in the NIT Final. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that 140 or more points will be score in this game. Dayton is a strong 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team winning between 51% to 60% since 1997; 36-18 OVER (+16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997. Dayton is a offensive minded team as evidenced by the fact that they are 19-5 OVER (+13.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. UNC is coming off a horrid game from beyond the arc, but Willimas knows how to get his team focused and prepared to play far better in the next game. UNC is 22-7 OVER (+14.3 Units) after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3 point shots since 1997. HC Gregory is Gregory is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds. Take the OVER. 
10* graded play on UNC as they take on Dayton in the NIT Final. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. UNC has the personnel to pound the paint and go to the rim and either score or get fouled. They will certainly get more free throw attempts. UNC is a solid 8-2 against the money line (+7.2 Units) in road games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. The model confirms that UNC will have at least 4 more free throws than Dayton and if the reach a double digit differential in only increases the probabilities that UNC will win this game. Dayton is 3-6 against the money line (-10.9 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 less free throws than opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons. Dayton has had a strong run to get this final game, but they are just 5-18 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1997. Rebounding will be a significant factor for UNC and they are coming off a huge game getting 20 offensive boards. HC Williams is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after a game with 20 or more offensive rebounds. UNC had 60 total boards and allowed 36.8% shooting in their last win over Rhode Island. They allowed 28.8% shooting the game before that in a 5 point win over UAB. Take North Carolina. 
5* graded play OVER UNC/Dayton in the first half of the NIT Final. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 1997. Play over in neutral court games where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 and one of the teams is a good defensive team allowing <=42% on the season facing an opponent after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less.