Final Four Predictions John Ryan Sports April 03, 2010 Michigan State Spartans @ Butler Bulldogs

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April, 03 2010 6:07pm EST
ATS: Michigan State Spartans +1 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Michigan State Spartans at Butler Bulldogs

Photo_cbb 15* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Butler in the Final 4 starting at 6:05 EST Saturday April 3, 2010. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game. MSU is not a high pressure defense and plays fundamentally sound ball challenging perimeter shots without creating foolish fouls. We believe that you will see this perimeter defense force shot changes or even abort shots and pass in some instances. Butler is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. SU has done very well in neutral court game sporting a sparkling 8-1 ATS record; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Coaching and coaching experience are at their highest importance in the Final 4 and Izzo is a stout 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick. Rebounding is going to be the deciding factor in this game and MSU has a huge edge. We also see second chance opportunities decidedly in favor of MSU. You will hear the announcers talk about this in the second half. MSU has been excellent from behind the arc hitting 40%. With that said we fully expect Durrell Summers to continue his superior play. he has 80 points in the tournament and based on the matchups he may have 25+ tonight. If Butler tries to take him out of the offense then MSU will have an abundant amount of short high percentage shots and easy layups. Korie Lucious has struggled at the point, but we feel he will be more than adequate tonight. he only has to deal with ball control based on the matchups and that focus will minimize the high pressure defense of Butler’s Ronald Nored. No doubt MSu will look to run at every transition opportunity. Their matchup advantages decline significantly when forced into half court set. Still, REBOUNDING, REBOUNDING, and more REBOUNDING will take MSU to the Championship game.