Jim Kruger Available Picks

January, 07 2012 4:30pm EST
ATS: Cincinnati Bengals +4 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Take #101 Cincinnati over Houston

Since starting QB Matt Schaub went down in week 10 versus Tampa Bay, the Texans have only been able to top 20 points once, the final game of the season, a 23-22 loss to Tennessee, where TJ Yates only played briefly throwing just four passes.  They averaged just 18 points per game in those final six while scoring only 9 touchdowns. 

The Bengals played well on the road going 5-3 SU this year.  Five of their losses were to Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each and division-winning San Francisco.  Their other two losses were by a total of three points.

Houston squeaked by Cincinnati, 20-19, on a six-yard touchdown pass with two seconds left when the teams met in Cincinnati on Dec. 11. The Bengals had led nearly the entire game and in fact were up

19-10 halfway through the final quarter.  Houston had the advantage of a +2 turnover margin.  Teams in the playoffs that lost to their opponent during the regular season have a nice 40-22 ATS mark since 2002 which improves to 28-14, 66.7%, if they are on the road in their playoff match. 

There is a big difference in the quality of the two starting rookie quarterbacks.  Cincy's Andy Dalton improved rapidly as the season progressed as he finished with a 20-13 TD/INT ratio and appears to be a star QB in the making.  Houston's T.J. Yates is a back-up QB at best, one who stands a much better chance of "losing a game" as compared to "winning a game". 

The Bengals' offense isn't very strong, especially on the ground, and didn't score more than 24 points in their last nine ball games.  In fact, they were outgained in seven of those nine contests.  Houston played one of the weakest schedules in the NFL as compared to Cincinnati's top ten schedule.  Not much was expected from the Bengals this year so they shouldn't feel very pressured in this game.  On the other hand, a lot was expected of Houston and Coach Kubiak's job was probably on the line if they didn't make the playoffs.  Both teams are quite good defensively but with the line at +4, I am siding with the Bengals.

Jim Kruger NFL Football Past Picks

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New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday January 22, 2012 6:30 pm
Take the NY Giants over San Francisco This year's version of the playoffs is similar to last year's when Green Bay continuously went on the road facing better teams, statistically, but kept winning.  That is what the Giants are doing.  Whether they can make it through ... read more

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Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Sunday January 22, 2012 3:00 pm
Take Baltimore over New England A touchdown in a conference championship game is a lot to lay.  Especially against a team with as good of defense as Baltimore.  Add to the fact one team, Baltimore, struggled to win and were actually outgained in their game against Houston ... read more

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Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday January 15, 2012 1:00 pm
Take Baltimore over Houston Houston has had a great season, their best in the history of the Texans.  In spite of losing their top two quarterbacks and an All-Pro defender, amongst a total of 12 injured Texans lost for the season, Houston won its first ever Division title.  ... read more

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Saturday January 7, 2012 4:30 pm
Take #101 Cincinnati over Houston Since starting QB Matt Schaub went down in week 10 versus Tampa Bay, the Texans have only been able to top 20 points once, the final game of the season, a 23-22 loss to Tennessee, where TJ Yates only played briefly throwing just four passes.  ... read more

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Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Sunday January 1, 2012 8:20 pm
Take the #312 NY Giants over Dallas   This is for the NFC East Division title and a playoff ticket punched.  I like Eli Manning over Tony Romo, especially Romo with a nicked-up hand.  RB Felix Jones is hurting with a hamstring issue but is listed as probable.  ... read more

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Sunday January 1, 2012 4:15 pm
Take #329 Kansas City over Denver Many of the Chiefs players had issues with departed coach Todd Halley.  Appointed interim coach was defensive coordinator Romeo Crenel, a coach who has the players' respect.  Kyle Orton is a huge upgrade at QB over Tyler Palko.  ... read more

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San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Saturday December 24, 2011 4:15 pm
#126 Seattle +2 over San Francisco We had the 49ers last week versus Pittsburgh and had an easy win.  San Fran clinched the NFC West for the first time since 2002 and would like to have the second best record in the NFC.  However, history has shown that teams needing to ... read more

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Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals Saturday December 24, 2011 1:00 pm
#109 Arizona over Cincinnati Arizona has gone under the radar in spite of winning six of the past seven games.  Oh, three of those wins were over Dallas, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.  QB John Skeleton (who?) has done enough to tally victories.  The Cards have ... read more

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Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Sunday December 18, 2011 1:00 pm
Take #315 Carolina over Houston If you could wish for the biggest letdown spot, you would have it for the Houston Texans.  They just clinched a division title and their first playoff spot ever.  AND, they did it with a QB with initials for a first name, T.J. Yates.  ... read more

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Tennesse Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday December 18, 2011 1:00 pm
Take #317 Tennessee over Indianapolis Tennessee is in the playoff hunt.  They are off of a disappointing loss to the Saints that went down to the last play of the game.  The Titan running attack behind Chris Johnson with him getting 130, 153, and 190 yards in three of ... read more

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