Jim Kruger Available Picks

June, 10 2010 9:05pm EST
TOTAL: Under 190 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Take Lakers - Celtics UNDER 190

So far we are 3-0 in the NBA Finals with our Totals plays.   Boston has been playing much better defense at home this year in the Playoffs.  The Celtics have the best defensive rating at home of any of the playoff teams chalking up a 95.6 rating, almost 5 points better than the next closest team. 

As we expected, the number of combined free throws dropped from 67 in both Game 1 and 2 to 48 as the refs stopped calling as close of game and let the teams play.  I believe that trend will continue Thursday.  As stated in our Game 3 write-up, the pace did slow down from the first two contests.  In fact, the pace was the slowest LA or Boston has played in this year's playoffs. 

Los Angeles is taking away the Boston inside game with 9.3 block shots per game causing Boston problems offensively.  They are holding Boston to a 43.3% shooting percentage.  The Celtics backs are against the wall and should give a very strong and focused performance in Game 4.  A system trend that is 56-28 since the 2003 playoffs is to play the UNDER after a game where the winning team scored 40 points or less in the second half(Los Angeles).  If the game was away and this game is also away, that trend improves to 11-3.  Another trend that is 14-5 is to play the UNDER on a road team off of a win where they were outscored in the second half and who also lost the game before the previous match.  That trend improves to 13-2 if the previous game went UNDER the lined total.

Take the UNDER

Jim Kruger NBA Basketball Past Picks

NBA Basketball

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings Thursday February 9, 2012 10:35 pm
Take Sacramento over Oklahoma City Believe it or not, but Sacramento is playing good basketball recently.  They got a new coach in early January and they have become competitive.  After a 29 point loss to Denver on January 25, the Kings had three days off after a very ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers Tuesday February 7, 2012 7:05 pm
Take #701 Utah-Indiana UNDER Both teams are off of embarrassing losses.  Utah played last night and lost to the Knicks sans Amare Stoudemire and only a handful of Carmelo minutes before he got injured.  Indiana lost to Orlando at home when they only scored 14 points ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets Monday February 6, 2012 9:05 pm
Take the UNDER The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets are both struggling offensively after putting together impressive runs last month. The Nuggets will try to avoid losing a season-high third straight when they host the Rockets on Monday night. After winning six in a row ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks Monday February 6, 2012 7:35 pm
The Atlanta Hawks are struggling to find production down low with two of their centers sidelined due to injury. The Phoenix Suns may have found someone to help Marcin Gortat in the paint. Atlanta looks to avoid a season-high third straight defeat Monday night when the visiting ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Friday February 3, 2012 7:35 pm
Take #807 Milwaukee-Detroit OVER Milwaukee is without Center Andrew Bogut which is more of a loss defensively than offensively.  Drew Gooden has been providing much more offensive punch as in his four starts since Bogut broke his ankle, Gooden is averaging 19.8 points per ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Jersey Nets Friday February 3, 2012 7:35 pm
Take #809 Minnesota over New Jersey The Timberwolves are off of a bad loss at Indiana.  They were bad on defense giving up 64 points in the second half and never got going offensively shooting just 37.4% for the game.  In the past, Minnesota was one of the worst road ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Thursday February 2, 2012 10:35 pm
Take #509 Denver over LA Clippers The LA Clippers are doing things they haven't done in quite some time, such as winning in Utah last night.  That hadn't happened since 2003.  Tonight they go for their 5th straight victory, the first time since early November, 2006.  ... read more

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NBA Basketball

New Orleans Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs Thursday February 2, 2012 8:35 pm
Take #505 New Orleans-San Antonio OVER Last season Tim Duncan missed five games for the Spurs.  All five went OVER the total.  This year against Houston, Coach Greg Popovich sat Tim Duncan down because it was San Antonio's fourth game in five days.  Yesterday Duncan ... read more

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NBA Basketball

New Orleans Hornets @ Miami Heat Monday January 30, 2012 7:35 pm
Take #705 New Orleans-Miami UNDER New Orleans is the next-to-last slowest team in pace in the NBA.  Offensively they have struggled ranking 25th in offensive efficiency in the league.  Their best offensive weapon, Eric Gordon, is sidelined with an injury.  New ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns Saturday January 28, 2012 9:05 pm
Take #509 Memphis-Phoenix UNDER 191.5 Last year Memphis had a much stronger offensive efficiency at home than on the road.  This year the differential is even more pronounced with the Grizzlies scoring 18 points less per 100 possessions away from FedEx Forum.  Memphis ... read more

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