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May, 09 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Utah Jazz -4 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

Take Utah over LA Lakers

There is a lot to be said about home cooking and playing in your own arena. Nobody was better at it during the regular season than the Utah Jazz. Yes, Utah led the NBA in fouls committed. However, the Lakers having 46 more free throws than the Jazz in the first two games is a shade out of proportion. Albeit, the number is enhanced by Utahs intentional fouling in the last couple of minutes of the two games in LA.

The main problem is the Jazz bigs are getting into foul trouble. To compound this matter, Boozer, Kirilenko, and Okur are vastly superior offensively to their replacements, Millsap, Harpring, and Jarron Collins. Millsap did pick up the slack on the scoreboard in Game 2 however he is not a true offensive option as he gets the majority of his points off of his excellent offensive rebounding skills.

Utah has continued fighting through the entire game. They have to avoid the low production quarters such as Q2 in Game 1 where they garnered 17 points and the first quarter in Game 2 where the Jazz were outscored 33 to 18. They get into double-digit holes and have had trouble digging out of them. This is partially due to not having a normal rotation due to foul trouble. Not one of Utahs starting bigs played more than 30 minutes in Game 2.

Utah did do a better job offensively in Game 2 cutting LAs fast break points almost in half from 17 to 9 while improving their margin of points in the paint to 58 to only 40 for LA. They also moved the ball around better while improving their cumulative advantage on the offensive boards to 41 to 12.

Look for more equality in the refs whistles tonight. The Jazz have one, if not the, loudest and most raucous arenas and that should help Utah immensely. The Jazz were down last year 2-0 to Houston before taking the series so they have had their backs against the wall before. Carlos Boozer has to stay out of foul trouble and get out of this scoring funk.

Utah does have the last five-years of history on their side. Teams down 2-0 who lost their last game by 10 or more points are 25-7 ATS in Game 3 at home, 8-1 if in Round 2. Also, teams down 2-0 and Home are 24-11 ATS if the previous game went OVER the total, 10-3 in Round 2.

Take Utah!

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