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May, 15 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 184 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)
New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs
We played the OVER 186.5 in Game 5 of this series. The pace had significantly increased in Games 3 and 4 played in San Antonio. The pace of Game 5 in the first half was in the exact same range as those games. Poor shooting by both squads, Spurs at 39.5% and the Hornets at 40.5%, kept the combined total at 91 points for the first half. With any improvement in shooting or an increase in fouls we should have gone over the lined total for the game maintaining a similar pace.
Unfortunately, San Antonios shooting worsened while scoring only 11 points in the third quarter. New Orleans opened up a big lead and the pace slowed down. Duncan was 5 of 18 and Manu Ginobili was only 5-15. The Spurs shot 37.7% for the game. They only shot below 40% 10 times the entire season. I look for a big improvement in the Spurs offense in Game 6 as both Duncan and Ginobili wont shoot below 35% for the game.
Games 1 and 2 were within 3 points of the lined total on either side. Game 3 went Over the lined total by 26 points. Game 4 should have gone Over the total but the insertion of second-stringers for virtually the entire fourth quarter by both teams ended up with only a 34 point quarter.
The Spurs have to know that their best chance to win when their offense is in gear. With the faster pace in Games 3 and 4 (Spurs home wins) they scored 110 and 100 points shooting 48.2 and 51.3%. The Spurs have not come close to those totals in their three losses on the road only topping out at 84 points.
A small data sample that is 10-1 OVER in the past five seasons in the playoffs is to take the OVER on a home team favored by more than 6 points with one days rest off of a road loss of double digits. .
Take the OVER!
Jim Kruger Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Tuesday June 17, 2008 9:00 pm
Take Boston over LA <p> In Game 5, the LA bigs played their best game of the series with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom combining for 39 points, 14 of 20, and 24 rebounds. While there ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers Sunday June 15, 2008 9:05 pm
The pace has remained fairly consistent in each of the first four games. Three of the four games have gone UNDER the lined total. Except for the game where Boston shot below 35%, they other two games ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers Thursday June 12, 2008 9:00 pm
Take the Celtics +7.5 over LA Either team could have legitimately won any of the first three games in this series. Comebacks and runs have been common so far. If you are a Laker fan or backer, ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Sunday June 8, 2008 9:00 pm
Take the OVER in LA-Boston!<p>LA only committed 8 turnovers in Game 1. After shooting 50% in the first half, they only shot 33% on 13-39 for the rest of the game, 5 for 20 in the fourth quarter. ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday June 5, 2008 9:00 pm
Take Boston over LA Thursday The play of Kendrick Perkins against the Pistons was impressive, especially his hustle. It was helped by the excellent penetration of Rajon Rondo and the Detroit defense ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Friday May 30, 2008 8:30 pm
Take Detroit over Boston <p> Detroit is 6-0 straight-up and against-the-spread over the past 5 seasons when facing an elimination game at home. Rip Hamilton is going to be in the line-up tonight ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers Thursday May 29, 2008 9:00 pm
Take San Antonio-LA Lakers UNDER 194 <p> San Antonio’s offense has been the main reason the Spurs are down in this series. Three of the four games the Spurs have held the Lakers ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics Wednesday May 28, 2008 8:30 pm
Take the UNDER in Detroit-Boston Three of the four games in the Eastern Championship Series have gone UNDER the total. All three of those games had one team with an offensive efficiency rating below ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs Sunday May 25, 2008 8:30 pm
Take San Antonio over LA
The Spurs couldnt have played a worse game in Game 2 than if they tried. They shot below 35%, allowed LA to shoot almost 55%, and had half as many trips to the free throw ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger
NBA Basketball
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Saturday May 24, 2008 8:30 pm
Take Boston over Detroit
Everybody knows Bostons terrible road record in the playoffs. That includes the Pistons. Sure, this is the playoffs and every game counts, etc, etc, etc. However, even the ... read more
Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger