Jim Kruger Available Picks

June, 08 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 192.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Take the OVER in LA-Boston!
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LA only committed 8 turnovers in Game 1.  After shooting 50% in the first half, they only shot 33% on 13-39 for the rest of the game, 5 for 20 in the fourth quarter.  The Lakers were killed on the boards, 33 to 46, with the margin even worse if you include team rebounds, 42 to 61 for the Celtics.  While LA has been very good in the playoffs this year, Utah was able to beat them in back to back games in the second round.  Boston is a better team than Utah.The pressure of Game 1 in the Finals affected both teams, more so on the offensive end.  This was Boston’s lowest offensive efficiency rating for a home game in the playoffs since the opening game against Cleveland. 
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Over the last 11 years, there has been 13 games in the Finals where the home team was a pick’em or an underdog.  Their straight-up record is 1-12, 3-9-1 ATS.  However, these home dog teams have been significantly more inferior than tonight’s home dog, Boston.  We are talking about the 76ers in 2001 against the Lakers, New Jersey in 2002 against the Lakers, and Cleveland versus San Antonio last year as ones that really stick out.  <p>In Game #2 of the Finals over the past 11 years, there has not been one time the home team was an underdog with the only one below a four-point favorite being Utah at -2 against Michael Jordan and the Bulls in 1998.  The SU record in this time frame is 9-2 for the home team.
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Kobe Bryant forced a lot of shots in Game 1 resulting in 9 for 26 shooting including 0-3 behind the arc.  He only got to the charity stripe 6 times.  A lot is being said about how Kobe will erupt tonight.  Of course there is that possibility, but the Celtics also did a very good job on Bryant in their two regular season games holding him to 32.6% shooting from the field. 
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Boston will play defense mostly the same way they did in Game 1 and all season.  They don’t make that many adjustments.  LA will have to improve offensively.  They only got 2 fast break points in Game 1, mainly due to lack of rebounding and fouling Boston so much (35 FTA’s).  Boston’s half-court defense is tough to crack.
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Paul Pierce is going to play tonight.  He stated he was diagnosed with a strained meniscus.  He will have pain in the knee and swelling afterwards, but he did participate in the shoot-around this morning.  I don’t think his injury will be a factor.  I am not a doctor, but I tore my meniscus slightly in the late 90’s.  It was painful but nothing I couldn’t live with until I had arthroscopic surgery.  <p>Kendrick Perkins, the Boston center, has a high-ankle sprain and did not participate in the shoot-around.  He is a game-time decision.  I would not be surprised to see Perkins stay out of this game.  Veteran 38-year old PJ Brown would take his place.  I believe the Perkins injury is damaging to the Celtics.<p>With Perkins being out, Boston’s rebounding will not be as good.  This should open up more second-chance opportunities for LA as well as fast-break chances.  During the playoffs, when Perkins was on the court the Celtics allowed 98.1 points per 100 possessions.  That figure ballooned to 111.1 when Perkins was off the court.  The offensive rating of points per possession of the Celtics four starters with Brown playing  instead of Perkins during the playoffs is 1.18 versus 1.08 with Perkins. 
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The pace for Game 1 was 93, the highest for any Celtic playoff game except Game 2 against Atlanta.  The pace in the two regular season games was higher than that.  The score was 77-73 Boston going into the fourth quarter in Game 1.  Terrible shooting in the fourth quarter doomed the OVER.  I look for LA to pick up the tempo and make offensive adjustments.  If Perkins is out, I expect Boston to not play quite as good of defense overall.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see LA win this game, but I don’t want to go against Boston’s 46-7 SU record this season including the playoffs.
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Take the OVER