Jim Kruger Available Picks

June, 05 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Boston Celtics -2.5 (-110)
WIN for +0.91 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Take Boston over LA Thursday

The play of Kendrick Perkins against the Pistons was impressive, especially
his hustle. It was helped by the excellent penetration of Rajon Rondo and the
Detroit defense rotating over. Perkins will be on Pau Gasol. Stopping
Gasol’s short jumper is key for Celtic success.

Rondo is often an offensive liability for Boston. In the Eastern
Conference Finals, Rondo only shot 10 for 35, 34.9%, usually being wide open for his
jumpers. If Rondo isn’t hitting from outside, Derek Fisher can help out
elsewhere defensively. We will probably see Sam Cassell and Eddie House more in
this series for Boston.

Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant have had incidents in the past between each other,
there is no love lost for either party. Bryant averaged 29.2 ppg against
the Spurs while shooting over 53%. Helping Allen out at times on Kobe will be
Paul Pierce. Pierce doesn’t have the greatest quickness, but he did a pretty
good job on Prince and Lebron in the playoffs this year. James Posey off
the bench will get his time on Kobe, also.

Boston has the best assistant coach in charge of their defense in the NBA,
Tom Thibodeau. Boston played the best defense in the league as ranked by
efficiency. Granted, they played 52 of their regular season games against the
East, an obviously inferior conference than the West, but they did go 25-5 SU
against the West this year, 14-1 at home.

The Lakers were 22-8 SU, 15-15 ATS, after the All-Star break. Boston was
25-7 SU, 20-11 ATS in that time frame.

Lamar Odom can have a good game or be of very little value, you never are
sure what you are going to get from him. Kevin Garnett could get Odom in foul
trouble early. However, LA does have perhaps the best bench in the NBA so
that might not be much of a factor.

Vladimir Radmanovic is a good outside shooter for LA and could be a key if
Boston teams up on Kobe. Bryant is a very good passer and can burn double
teams, but he also has shown a tendency to force shots. Radmanovic will probably
be on Pierce so I expect Pierce to remain aggressive and dribble penetrate
trying to draw fouls.

The Finals are played in a 2-3-2 game rotation. The series pricing is
strongly in LA’s favor, to a degree that is surprising considering Boston has
home court advantage. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see LA win
the series. Boston has been inconsistent on offense, especially Ray Allen.
However, the price where it stands today to bet on the Lakers is of zero value.
If you want to bet on LA, I would personally wait to do so IF they lose the
first game. San Antonio did a very good job defensively on LA in four of
the five games. Boston should be able to do just as well.

LA showed they can win on the road at Denver, Utah, and San Antonio. I like
the small line and have to favor the home team in Game 1.

Take Boston over LA Thursday