Bryan Leonard Sports Available Picks

February, 11 2012 4:00pm EST
ATS: San Diego State Aztecs +10 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Runnin' Rebels

575 San Diego State at UNLV
This line is much too high in our opinion based on the revenge factor and how well UNLV has played at home this year. But despite the game being a sellout the Rebels just haven't been as impressive in these afternoon contests. Sure they beat up California here earlier in the season but we attended that game and the Bears were simply horrible. Likely the worst played game of the season for Cal. UNLV also doesn't match up well with the Aztecs, they haven't since Steve Fisher took over the program. The Aztecs have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, including 4 of 5 outright on this court. The lone UNLV win in the last ten contests was a 76-66 victory two years ago.
The Rebels are ranked 11th in RPI while the Aztecs are ranked 19th. San Diego State is very familiar with this site since they not only play here once a year but the conference tournament is at the Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels depend too much on the three point shot and San Diego State has been able to shut them down in that regard. UNLV is also a poor shooting club from the free throw line which is likely to come into play here. Overall laying double digits is too much for the Rebels based on series history.
PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

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